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Okay, take a town 60 years ago. Lots of people, say, o driving cars with tires that last only 15,000 miles, o driving cars with engines that last
by graycat 13y ago
Okay, take a town 60 years ago. Lots of people,
say,
o driving cars with tires that last only 15,000
miles,
o driving cars with engines that last only 80,000
miles (due to poor lubrication due to water and
gasoline in the oil due to inaccurate fuel
mixture and ignition),
o typing on typewriters with carbon paper,
o doing business communications with printing
and/or typing on paper sent by USPS,
o an office telephone switchboard manned by
employees.
Now enter new technology, and each of these
activities uses some automation, is much cheaper,
and puts the old employees out of work.
So, have lots of unemployed people with little or
no money who want to make money and consume but
cannot get jobs.
Why not jobs? For one, the total number of jobs
shrank, and as in musical chairs some people don't
get one.
For another, to create more jobs need some ideas for
new products/services, some capital to get the
businesses going, and some qualified employees. The
unemployed people will need some new training, that
is, investments in 'human capital'.
As we know from depressions, can have a shortage of
capital, lots of people not consuming who want to
work but no jobs for them to do. Then if have a
war, suddenly can have three jobs for everyone who
can work at all.
There is also an effect of the ratios of people to
land and other natural resources. With high density
population, the prices of such resources increase.
Maybe when the population of Japan, Finland, France,
Germany, Russia, the US, etc. shrink, the new ratio
will make it easier for a couple to form a family.
E.g., if the population is low enough that a young
couple can easily buy 200 acres of good farm land,
then there will be some new alternatives for that
couple to form a family. Now at maybe $5000 an
acre, let's, see, 200 acres would be $1 million.
She's 18; he's 22; and where are they going to get
$1 million or even a down payment plus farm
equipment and materials for a house?
Presumably in time startups will find new products
and services that people want and that can make use
of the unemployed.
But, in that town when automation put the typists
out of work, the jobs of some people were not
affected and, first cut, by having the company spend
much less on typing, could pay their remaining
employees more. So, some people are doing well.
And in Japan, the article seems to suggest that real
estate prices are so high that no one can afford
them! No! Instead, real estate prices are so high
just because enough people actually can afford them.
So, some people are doing well, and maybe they, or
their lucky heirs, are forming traditional families.