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Amazon's approach is very interesting, and I'm paying pretty close attention to them. I tend to be somewhat skeptical of open-submission systems, or of voting

Amazon's approach is very interesting, and I'm paying pretty close attention to them. I tend to be somewhat skeptical of open-submission systems, or of voting systems, because they suffer from the same prediction problems that Hollywood's development model does. Plus, they're more prone to GIGO problems (Hollywood actually does a pretty good job filtering crap out before it goes into the system). Amazon might be focusing on the wrong thing (development) rather than the right things (production, support, distribution exclusivity). At least in the short term. If I were them, I'd probably use my significant capital reserves, buyer power, and Hollywood's resentment of Netflix to my advantage. I'd cut exclusive deals on proven or undervalued material that's already been produced (and could be scaled up, or reinstated, or spun off). Personally, I think the smartest thing Amazon is doing is tying Amazon Prime to free VOD streaming. A la carte content purchases are probably going away in the long run, and Prime is a great transition vehicle into more subscription-based services to compete with, say, Netflix.

Nimi 13y ago
Why do you think a la carte content purchases are going away?
- jonnathanson 13y ago
  For reasons of consumer convenience and marginal purchase costs. Right now, I believe the reason iTunes is so competitive with Netflix has less to do with a la carte's strength as a model, and more to do with Apple's strength as a platform and ecosystem. I would not be shocked to see more subscription-type offerings from Apple, especially with the whole migration toward iCloud. Here is where I'll put on my Purely Speculative Futurist hat, and I'll wade out a little bit into the choppy waters of broad generalizations. But I think that a la carte purchases, especially for entertainment products, are in many ways a relic of physical media. That's the way you had to buy physical media, for the most part. But it's a relic that cloud technologies and streaming services are obviating the need for. From a consumer standpoint, I experience zero marginal cost to watch an episode of Breaking Bad on Netflix (whereas I very much experience the feeling of paying $2.99 for it on iTunes). Netflix is in a tough spot because it has lost a lot of great content, as well as competitive windows against services like iTunes. iTunes is (currently) a much better place to get the new stuff while it's new, and that's a big liability for Netflix or other subscription services. All other things being equal, subscription is a better value proposition than ownership for many categories of goods. It's also more convenient.

Nimi 13y ago

Why do you think a la carte content purchases are going away?

jonnathanson 13y ago
For reasons of consumer convenience and marginal purchase costs. Right now, I believe the reason iTunes is so competitive with Netflix has less to do with a la carte's strength as a model, and more to do with Apple's strength as a platform and ecosystem. I would not be shocked to see more subscription-type offerings from Apple, especially with the whole migration toward iCloud. Here is where I'll put on my Purely Speculative Futurist hat, and I'll wade out a little bit into the choppy waters of broad generalizations. But I think that a la carte purchases, especially for entertainment products, are in many ways a relic of physical media. That's the way you had to buy physical media, for the most part. But it's a relic that cloud technologies and streaming services are obviating the need for. From a consumer standpoint, I experience zero marginal cost to watch an episode of Breaking Bad on Netflix (whereas I very much experience the feeling of paying $2.99 for it on iTunes). Netflix is in a tough spot because it has lost a lot of great content, as well as competitive windows against services like iTunes. iTunes is (currently) a much better place to get the new stuff while it's new, and that's a big liability for Netflix or other subscription services. All other things being equal, subscription is a better value proposition than ownership for many categories of goods. It's also more convenient.