Of course you're right (and I agree - that's why I said there's many challenges). I was questioning your analogy with Apple. I'm sure they could win the low-en

Of course you're right (and I agree - that's why I said there's many challenges). I was questioning your analogy with Apple. I'm sure they could win the low-end; but they don't want to. Addressing the question of whether Musk can win it... well, firstly it is uncertain (and he might get hit by the proverbial bus), so we have to factor that in. But, some first mover factors in his favour: he's further along the engineering learning curve than anyone else; and further along winning market headspace; and further along getting every little business thing right to make it all happen. That is, he has a high probability of succeeding. Secondly, I think Toyota or General Electric are better comparisons than with GM (whose cap reflects its terrible shape), which are 5 times bigger. (see the figures in my other comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6567057 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6567057) That is, the potential prize is larger than given in the article. Whether Tesla is over-priced or not I couldn't say - except that the market overreacts to both good news and bad news, so it's probably best to wait for a dramatic stuff up that doesn't actually affect its real business prospects, and buy the depressed stock.