You're still ignoring the big elephant in the room: Is Tesla worth more than Fiat, is it worth half of GM? In its current state, with its current sales, of cou

You're still ignoring the big elephant in the room: Is Tesla worth more than Fiat, is it worth half of GM? In its current state, with its current sales, of course not. But with its potential state, its reinvention of automobiles, is it? That part is very, very hard to say. In a world where Tesla was the only real electric car player, sure, we know electric is the way forward. But their competitors aren't incompetent, and they aren't sitting still. We are seeing full-EV cars come out of every major car manufacturer, and they're improving rapidly. We also know that the high end of the electric car market is just a test environment, the real battle will be fought in the "regular car" market. Not the Roadster, not the Model S, and not the new SUV. Tesla may have beaten everyone to the punch and built incredible luxury automobiles, but can it beat the incumbents when pricing pressure is very real, and very heavy? I believe in electric cars, but I am very skeptical that Tesla will beat GM, Ford, Chrysler, Nissan, Toyota, Honda, Volkswagen, and Hyundai in the low/mid-end. I'm also skeptical that they can maintain their current lead when luxury automakers like BMW and Daimler want a slice of the pie. Tesla surely has done a lot to dispel the negative connotations of electric cars, but where they go from here is anyone's guess. There is way too much uncertainty to IMO justify such an insane valuation. Think about it this way: Apple was first to market with the iPhone, a device that dispelled many perceptions about smartphones being stupid, clunky, and only for businesspeople. It was beautiful, and it was a wild departure from anything seen up until that point - and most importantly, it was incredibly well executed. For a little while it looked like the iPhone was going to swallow the world. And then Android showed up and completely ate the low and mid-end markets. Apple isn't dead by any means, and perceptually they are still the top dog in town, but anyone who bet on Apple assuming majority market share is now, well, wrong. In Apple's case, the competitor sort of came out of nowhere - Android I don't think was a serious contender on anyone's radar initially. In Tesla's case, they are going up against very experienced, very wealthy, and very serious competitors - competitors who have in recent years demonstrated their ability to adapt to market conditions and turn themselves around. Anyone who still sees the big automakers are stodgy and unable to change should go look at what the Ford Motor Co has done recently.