I think it's partly to do with the fact that in a complex system it's sometimes pretty difficult to clearly identify lines of cause and effect, but most smart p

I think it's partly to do with the fact that in a complex system it's sometimes pretty difficult to clearly identify lines of cause and effect, but most smart people will think about it until they've satisfied themselves that they have figured it out. This is why I'm not so sold on advice given by 'one-hit wonders,' people who scored big with a startup and are now seen as gurus because of it. I'm interested to hear what they say, but I'm skeptical.