It sounds like we are talking past each other slightly. It sounds like you are trying to produce the probability that a proof is found that P=NP in a given year

It sounds like we are talking past each other slightly. It sounds like you are trying to produce the probability that a proof is found that P=NP in a given year. However, I'm asking for the probability that ultimately P=NP. What would you average that over? What would your input data be? I understand that people work up all sorts of heuristics for their daily lives, but that doesn't constitute scientific proof. There still just heuristics. > Because the testable claims are all that's left, since everything else has long since been proven to be false How can testable claims be all that's left. If it's testable then it can be proven or disproven. Did you mean untestable?