4 ms·
For the general audience total confidence always beats the person who delivers a confidence interval. Hedgehogs also beat foxes, despite the obvious difference
by nazgulnarsil 13y ago
For the general audience total confidence always beats the person who delivers a confidence interval.
Hedgehogs also beat foxes, despite the obvious difference in prediction accuracy in favor of foxes.
- md224 13y agoYeah I was actually considering that as well, in terms of how information evolves. Whatever is best at spreading will spread.
- wging 13y agoPerhaps the answer is a kind of confident non-confidence. "I have studied this problem and am about 70% confident that the answer is this, and I am confident there's not enough information available to be more certain than that. If anyone tells you they know the answer for certain, they are probably trying to sell you something."
- nazgulnarsil 13y agoI think this is a really valuable approach to try, thank you.