3 ms·
> In summary, the idea is to give all of the information to help others to judge the value of your contribution; not just the information that leads to judgemen
by md224 13y ago
> In summary, the idea is to give all of the information to help others to judge the value of your contribution; not just the information that leads to judgement in one particular direction or another.
Sometimes I think if we could extend this principle to human communication in general, we'd end up with a lot less misinformation.
I try to communicate doubts or possible weaknesses in my arguments when I can, though it's difficult and I'm sure I've failed to do so on numerous occasions. It occurs to me that perhaps we simply don't have the cognitive capacity to include that level of information in our everyday communications. Still, I wonder if perhaps this should be an ideal to strive for. Information travels so fast now, and it seems like most people aren't very mindful of how they participate in this transmission.
- nazgulnarsil 13y agoFor the general audience total confidence always beats the person who delivers a confidence interval. Hedgehogs also beat foxes, despite the obvious difference in prediction accuracy in favor of foxes.
- md224 13y agoYeah I was actually considering that as well, in terms of how information evolves. Whatever is best at spreading will spread.
- wging 13y agoPerhaps the answer is a kind of confident non-confidence. "I have studied this problem and am about 70% confident that the answer is this, and I am confident there's not enough information available to be more certain than that. If anyone tells you they know the answer for certain, they are probably trying to sell you something."
- nazgulnarsil 13y agoI think this is a really valuable approach to try, thank you.
- TheZenPsycho 13y agoAs others have pointed out, in the court of public opinion, ideas are not a meritocracy. Loudest wins, and hedging is seen as weakness. There is an experiment here that can be applied to start ups. Can you predict the success or failure of a start up based on how confident the founder is perceived?