4 ms·
Um, no it isn't impossible at all. It's called statistics and all sorts of government organizations collect a bunch of them. While it is impossible to finely
by earl 17y ago
Um, no it isn't impossible at all. It's called statistics and all sorts of government organizations collect a bunch of them. While it is impossible to finely estimate, it is nothing like impossible to come up with pretty good estimates.
And for what it's worth, industrial output has fallen at a pace faster than during the beginning of the Great Depression. That we haven't seen similar knockon effects (30% unemployment?) is most likely due to government stimulus ala Keynes. Now it is fair to claim that the economy has more services and less goods, so the GD isn't a perfect comparison, but it is pretty good.
See, eg,
(industrial output)
http://voxeu.org/files/image/eichengreen_update_fig1.gif http://voxeu.org/files/image/eichengreen_update_fig1.gif
(world trade -- more important now than then)
http://voxeu.org/files/image/eichengreen_update_fig3.gif http://voxeu.org/files/image/eichengreen_update_fig3.gif
(industrial output, 4 big europeans)
http://voxeu.org/files/image/biigeuro.gif http://voxeu.org/files/image/biigeuro.gif
Source: http://voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3421 http://voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3421
- randallsquared 17y agoYou can get some important and interesting insights from economic statistical data, but macroeconomics is a series of just-so stories, at best; it isn't even really the same thing as microeconomics. Microeconomics deals, in part at least, with things you can run experiments on, with actual controls. Macro, not so much; like politics, you can find a macro pundit to give pretty much any conclusion you'd like, even when they mostly agree on micro. [Edit: apparently I'm just rephrasing the article summary. I guess I should have read it before ranting...]