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I have always been skeptical of what prophetic capabilities of economists. Their predictions on rise and fall of the greenback, oil prices, share market perform

I have always been skeptical of what prophetic capabilities of economists. Their predictions on rise and fall of the greenback, oil prices, share market performance have mostly fell flat on face. Remember how the league of global economists were forecasting that oil prices would shoot beyond $200 in no time. Until the oil price took an u-turn and plummeted to around $40 within six month. very good at explaining past events. terrible at predicting the future.

gasull 17y ago
very good at explaining past events. They aren't that good at that either.
- kailashbadu 17y ago
  Well, I guess, they indeed are good at making things up. especially when they have the benefit of hindsight.
  - absconditus 17y ago
    If you want an example of how they are bad at this, look at the Great Depression. There is still a great deal of disagreement to this day about its cause and how it was overcome.
    - aswanson 17y ago
      And yet this is a field that has a Nobel set aside for it whereas mathematics is treated like a stepchild.
      - jswinghammer 17y ago
        I believe that Nobel's family is quite opposed to this-they believe that the prize's relationship to the Nobel prize is an attempt to elevate economics up to the level of physics or chemistry.
      - johnnybgoode 17y ago
        At least it isn't a real Nobel.
    - Empact 17y ago
      "Regarding the Great Depression. You're right, we [the FED] did it. We're very sorry. But thanks to you, we won't do it again." — Ben Bernanke, in a speech at Milton Friedman's 90's birthday, 2002 “It's almost worth the Great Depression, to learn how little our big men know.” — Will Rogers
      - absconditus 17y ago
        "We have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work. And I have just one interest, and now if I am wrong somebody else can have my job. I want to see this country prosper. I want to see people get a job. I want to see people get enough to eat. We have never made good on our promises. I say after eight years of this administration, we have just as much unemployment as when we started. And enormous debt to boot." -- Henry Morgenthau, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury during the administration of Franklin D. Roosevelt

gasull 17y ago

very good at explaining past events. They aren't that good at that either.

kailashbadu 17y ago
Well, I guess, they indeed are good at making things up. especially when they have the benefit of hindsight.
- absconditus 17y ago
  If you want an example of how they are bad at this, look at the Great Depression. There is still a great deal of disagreement to this day about its cause and how it was overcome.
  - aswanson 17y ago
    And yet this is a field that has a Nobel set aside for it whereas mathematics is treated like a stepchild.
    - jswinghammer 17y ago
      I believe that Nobel's family is quite opposed to this-they believe that the prize's relationship to the Nobel prize is an attempt to elevate economics up to the level of physics or chemistry.
    - johnnybgoode 17y ago
      At least it isn't a real Nobel.
  - Empact 17y ago
    "Regarding the Great Depression. You're right, we [the FED] did it. We're very sorry. But thanks to you, we won't do it again." — Ben Bernanke, in a speech at Milton Friedman's 90's birthday, 2002 “It's almost worth the Great Depression, to learn how little our big men know.” — Will Rogers
    - absconditus 17y ago
      "We have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work. And I have just one interest, and now if I am wrong somebody else can have my job. I want to see this country prosper. I want to see people get a job. I want to see people get enough to eat. We have never made good on our promises. I say after eight years of this administration, we have just as much unemployment as when we started. And enormous debt to boot." -- Henry Morgenthau, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury during the administration of Franklin D. Roosevelt