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What Kurzweil is saying is that you can't just linearly extrapolate the progress of these projects. Even if we only know a fraction of a percentage of what's go
by Devilboy 17y ago
What Kurzweil is saying is that you can't just linearly extrapolate the progress of these projects. Even if we only know a fraction of a percentage of what's going on in the brain after 20 years doesn't mean we'll know only twice as much in another 20 years. Rather we're likely to see the pace accelerate. Going from 50% to 100% might take less time than going from 1% to 2% knowledge.
Keep in mind that he's been making predictions like these for decades and he's got a pretty good track record.
- TrevorJ 17y agoI guess that I am saying is that I'm not convinced that the direction we have been heading is the direction that will ultimately produce the end result we want. The model T and the present day automobile share the same basic concepts. I'm wondering if human-level AI will bear any real resemblance to today's solutions on the concept level. I'm not convinced it will.
- Devilboy 17y agoI think the argument is that we can already simulate a single neuron fairly accurately today, and so some decades from now we'll likely be able to simulate them all, plus their interconnects, and thus by pure brute force we'll get a human-level AI.