4 ms·
Kurzweil is a genius but maybe he should try not to put such specific dates on his predictions. It makes it easy to say he was wrong by detractors.
by jamesk2 17y ago
Kurzweil is a genius but maybe he should try not to put such specific dates on his predictions. It makes it easy to say he was wrong by detractors.
- sp332 17y agoKurzweil usually makes predictions about things that have strong trends over time. His favorites are the trends that increase exponentially, because most people extrapolate the early, slow growth linearly and come to a completely wrong conclusion. If you watch his TED talk, he explains his technique. http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/ray_kurzweil_on_how_technology_will_transform_us.html http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/ray_kurzweil_on_how_techno...
- bitwize 17y agoUh, yeah, except the funny thing about exponential curves is that at small scales they look a hell of a lot like sigmoid curves.
- burke 17y agoKurzweil's oddly-specific dates have usually been correct.
- pj 17y agoIt also makes it easy to verify that he was right.