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Yes, this is like telling a newlywed that s/he has a 50% chance to eventually get divorced. True for the population, irrelevant for the individual. When one has

Yes, this is like telling a newlywed that s/he has a 50% chance to eventually get divorced. True for the population, irrelevant for the individual. When one has a more direct knowledge of the relevant factors, it's crazy to make a decision based solely on into what demographics one falls.

colmvp 13y ago
> Yes, this is like telling a newlywed that s/he has a 50% chance to eventually get divorced. FWIW, I really dislike it when people perpetuate the myth that 50% of marriages end in divorce. We actually have no idea what the true percentage is, and I think they myth got started because people compare the annual marriage rate with the annual divorce rage.
- mbateman 13y ago
  Yes, divorce demography is complicated! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Divorce_demography http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Divorce_demography But I was just being illustrative; my point applies even if it's 20% or 80%.
  - zentropia 13y ago
    If divorces happens 50% of the times and 100% of the people marries believing they are not going to divorces that means 50% are wrong
    - mbateman 13y ago
      Also true! There's a small literature in philosophy that worries about paradoxes in this area. But regardless of how that turns out, it seems safe to say that you shouldn't avoid getting married because of divorce demography, and you further shouldn't think of your marriage's chance of success in purely demographic terms. You instead need to pay attention to features on the ground like how you handle disagreements, your sex life, etc.
    - theorique 13y ago
      Yes and no. The way the rate is calculated is relative, so the people getting married in a given year and divorced in a given year aren't necessarily the same people.
ap22213 13y ago
Is it really that crazy? That's like saying that I should expect to live to 120, because it's been done before. And, I should ignore the expected lifespan number. Maybe healthy lifestyle choices will increase my lifespan. But, to expect that I should be a statistical outlier seems risky.
baddox 13y ago
> True for the population, irrelevant for the individual. Not necessarily, because people are notoriously bad at evaluating themselves, and often tend to assume that statistics (especially troubling ones) don't apply to them for whatever reason. For the divorce statistic (which I understand is not necessarily accurate, but let's pretend it really is 50%), how many of the divorced couples previously thought the statistic was irrelevant for them, because they're "truly in love" or some other reason?

colmvp 13y ago

> Yes, this is like telling a newlywed that s/he has a 50% chance to eventually get divorced. FWIW, I really dislike it when people perpetuate the myth that 50% of marriages end in divorce. We actually have no idea what the true percentage is, and I think they myth got started because people compare the annual marriage rate with the annual divorce rage.

mbateman 13y ago
Yes, divorce demography is complicated! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Divorce_demography http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Divorce_demography But I was just being illustrative; my point applies even if it's 20% or 80%.
- zentropia 13y ago
  If divorces happens 50% of the times and 100% of the people marries believing they are not going to divorces that means 50% are wrong
  - mbateman 13y ago
    Also true! There's a small literature in philosophy that worries about paradoxes in this area. But regardless of how that turns out, it seems safe to say that you shouldn't avoid getting married because of divorce demography, and you further shouldn't think of your marriage's chance of success in purely demographic terms. You instead need to pay attention to features on the ground like how you handle disagreements, your sex life, etc.
  - theorique 13y ago
    Yes and no. The way the rate is calculated is relative, so the people getting married in a given year and divorced in a given year aren't necessarily the same people.

ap22213 13y ago

Is it really that crazy? That's like saying that I should expect to live to 120, because it's been done before. And, I should ignore the expected lifespan number. Maybe healthy lifestyle choices will increase my lifespan. But, to expect that I should be a statistical outlier seems risky.

baddox 13y ago

> True for the population, irrelevant for the individual. Not necessarily, because people are notoriously bad at evaluating themselves, and often tend to assume that statistics (especially troubling ones) don't apply to them for whatever reason. For the divorce statistic (which I understand is not necessarily accurate, but let's pretend it really is 50%), how many of the divorced couples previously thought the statistic was irrelevant for them, because they're "truly in love" or some other reason?