I agree and I think a bayesian approach is more suitable. For instance, the probability of getting into YC: P(getting into YC | sold a startup, graduated from

I agree and I think a bayesian approach is more suitable. For instance, the probability of getting into YC: P(getting into YC | sold a startup, graduated from Stanford/MIT, worked on/built something awesome, etc) Or the chance of building a $1B company: P($1B company | you're in SV, $100MM in funding, etc)