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It is an interesting article and I agree with the subject matter (just wanting to do a startup is not reason enough), but I wanted to comment on the title: 0.00
by saosebastiao 13y ago
It is an interesting article and I agree with the subject matter (just wanting to do a startup is not reason enough), but I wanted to comment on the title: 0.00006% is a prior distribution. I wouldn't be surprised if the success rate posterior goes up an order of magnitude with something as minimal as a 4 year degree. Which is still a really small number...but it drastically changes your expected value.
- MJR 13y agoOr something like the type of business. A local service-based business like a hair salon, diner or hot dog cart shouldn't even be considered as a business that has the possibility of being worth a billion dollars. If this is based on total number of registered businesses, removing the large number of established small businesses that have been in business for X years would help arrive at a better number.
- arbuge 13y agoThere is a good analysis of this in Felix Dennis' book (How to Grow Rich). I don't remember what number he came up with, but after narrowing things down he clearly showed that the chances of success are actually far higher than the prior distribution.
- a8da6b0c91d 13y agoFelix Dennis is such a refreshing and honest break from all the ditzy California "change the world" and "passion" fluff. If I recall correctly he opened up with the following quotation: "Get place and wealth, if possible with grace; If not, by any means get wealth and place." --Alexander Pope
- maerF0x0 13y agonb: the book is "How to get rich" www.amazon.com/How-Get-Rich-Greatest-Entrepreneurs/dp/1591842719