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There will always be pundits on both sides of these sorts of arguments. In the early 90's, there were lots of people predicting IBM's imminent break-up. In 2
by tytso 13y ago
There will always be pundits on both sides of these sorts of arguments. In the early 90's, there were lots of people predicting IBM's imminent break-up. In 2011, Tomi Ahonen was claiming that despite everyone claiming that Nokia was under siege, it was still the world's largest seller of Smartphones (since he considered Symbian a Smartphone OS), while others were claiming that Nokia was doomed.
Time is the only way we can tell which of the pundits were right, and which (in retrospect) sounded like idiots.
- gibwell 13y agoWell IBM did end up divesting itself of the businesses people expected them to. They just did so in an orderly manner while simultaneously executing a new and very successful strategy. As for Tomi Ahonen, by the time of that 2011 statement, Nokia's smartphone sales were visibly in precipitous decline. Not their share, but their sales. So Ahonen's statement can only be seen as a statement of faith rather than of confidence. In these two cases, there were facts to support the predictions, where as in Apple's case all we have are just so stories.
- blinkingled 13y agoI think this is exactly the right way to put the whole debate to rest! Who knows what Apple has up its sleeves - they still got Jony Ive, they still got a ton of money to just keep going at things. That may result in greater products, or they may become like Microsoft - perpetually trying. Really, only time will tell, but I just don't think they'll fail spectacularly in the near future. BTW, good to see you posting somewhat frequently on HN Ted!