This is related to something called the Doomsday Argument, and it was recently the topic of an xkcd what-if blog: http://what-if.xkcd.com/65/ http://what-if.xk

This is related to something called the Doomsday Argument, and it was recently the topic of an xkcd what-if blog: http://what-if.xkcd.com/65/ http://what-if.xkcd.com/65/ By all accounts it comes down to the old bayesian/frequentist battle lines.