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I'm a big fan of Elon but I think he may be way off with these numbers... :S If you read the reports from the National Fire Protection Association they do esti

I'm a big fan of Elon but I think he may be way off with these numbers... :S If you read the reports from the National Fire Protection Association they do estimate the number of "highway vehicle fires" at around 150 000 per year [1], but they also explicitly say that 'the term “highway vehicle fires” is used to describe the type of vehicle, not the location of the fire' [2]. If you look at fires caused by collision or overturn (which I guess this would be classified as) that's only 4% of the total, or 6000 per year. 1. https://www.nfpa.org/safety-information/for-consumers/vehicles https://www.nfpa.org/safety-information/for-consumers/vehicl... 2. https://www.nfpa.org/research/statistical-reports/vehicles/vehicle-fire-trends-and-patterns https://www.nfpa.org/research/statistical-reports/vehicles/v...

codex 13y ago
According to some quick math, then, Teslas are 9x more likely to catch on fire from a collision than the average US car (1 / 5K) / (6K / 254M). I put the Tesla fire rate at one in 5000 per year because the average Tesla has been on the road for around half a year, and there are 10,000 of them.
cwp 13y ago
I bet you could get the number lower if you only counted fires caused by collision or overturn of a highway vehicle less than 3 years old. Or heck, just the black ones. Yes, this fire was caused by a collision, but fires caused by other things are relevant. If a Tesla car caught fire in somebody's driveway, people would be concerned about that too, right? So comparing 150,000 highway vehicle fires to 1 Tesla fire, regardless of cause, is pretty reasonable.
- codex 13y ago
  In considering whether to buy a Tesla, I would evaluate the safety of the alternatives. Most in the market for a Tesla aren't going to buy the 23 year old Buick LeSabre whose oil leaks caught fire on the Jersey turnpike last week. So I think it's reasonable to compare the safety with a modern luxury sedan. I don't think as many of those catch fire without a collision.

codex 13y ago

According to some quick math, then, Teslas are 9x more likely to catch on fire from a collision than the average US car (1 / 5K) / (6K / 254M). I put the Tesla fire rate at one in 5000 per year because the average Tesla has been on the road for around half a year, and there are 10,000 of them.

cwp 13y ago

I bet you could get the number lower if you only counted fires caused by collision or overturn of a highway vehicle less than 3 years old. Or heck, just the black ones. Yes, this fire was caused by a collision, but fires caused by other things are relevant. If a Tesla car caught fire in somebody's driveway, people would be concerned about that too, right? So comparing 150,000 highway vehicle fires to 1 Tesla fire, regardless of cause, is pretty reasonable.

codex 13y ago
In considering whether to buy a Tesla, I would evaluate the safety of the alternatives. Most in the market for a Tesla aren't going to buy the 23 year old Buick LeSabre whose oil leaks caught fire on the Jersey turnpike last week. So I think it's reasonable to compare the safety with a modern luxury sedan. I don't think as many of those catch fire without a collision.