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Just thinking out loud here... Can anyone think of other cases where science is used to predict the future of complex systems more than 2 years in advance? I'

Just thinking out loud here... Can anyone think of other cases where science is used to predict the future of complex systems more than 2 years in advance? I'm not talking about moore's law, but statistical models used to predict the future. How many solar flares will there be in 2020? What will the DOW be in 2050? How many democrats will be in congress in 2021? Stuff like that. So far, the only ones I can think of are models that always spit out the same message... "The earth is dying and we're at fault." I'm just curious if anyone knows of any predictive models that weren't created to scare the shit out of people.

dragonwriter 13y ago
> Can anyone think of other cases where science is used to predict the future of complex systems more than 2 years in advance? Every empirically-based plan for business, long-term policy, etc., ever. The forward-looking aspect of the science of cosmology. Lots more. > So far, the only ones I can think of are models that always spit out the same message... "The earth is dying and we're at fault." That's more indicative of the biases through which you filter the available information (perhaps most importantly, the bias in the information sources from which you receive information -- e.g., if the main place you get information about "science used to predict the future of complex systems" is the mainstream commercial media, there's a pretty heavy bias in what predictions you are going to hear about.)
- IanDrake 13y ago
  >Every empirically-based plan for business, long-term policy, etc., ever. Sure, all business do forecasting. That's pretty simple stuff. >if the main place you get information about "science used to predict the future of complex systems" is the mainstream commercial media That's true, where should I be looking? Can you link to specific examples?
  - dragonwriter 13y ago
    > Sure, all business do forecasting. That's pretty simple stuff. Lots of it involves predicting the behavior of complex economic and social systems using empirically-tested (scientific) methodologies. > That's true, where should I be looking? Can you link to specific examples? If you want to know about where science is used to predict the behavior of complex systems, one place to look would be the scientific literature of fields which are concerned with the behavior of complex systems.
    - IanDrake 13y ago
      Do you realize you basically just said "If you know where to look, you'll find it"? Thanks MOTO. Any links?
j_baker 13y ago
Medicine. "You're going to die in 20 years due to your diabetes."

dragonwriter 13y ago

> Can anyone think of other cases where science is used to predict the future of complex systems more than 2 years in advance? Every empirically-based plan for business, long-term policy, etc., ever. The forward-looking aspect of the science of cosmology. Lots more. > So far, the only ones I can think of are models that always spit out the same message... "The earth is dying and we're at fault." That's more indicative of the biases through which you filter the available information (perhaps most importantly, the bias in the information sources from which you receive information -- e.g., if the main place you get information about "science used to predict the future of complex systems" is the mainstream commercial media, there's a pretty heavy bias in what predictions you are going to hear about.)

IanDrake 13y ago
>Every empirically-based plan for business, long-term policy, etc., ever. Sure, all business do forecasting. That's pretty simple stuff. >if the main place you get information about "science used to predict the future of complex systems" is the mainstream commercial media That's true, where should I be looking? Can you link to specific examples?
- dragonwriter 13y ago
  > Sure, all business do forecasting. That's pretty simple stuff. Lots of it involves predicting the behavior of complex economic and social systems using empirically-tested (scientific) methodologies. > That's true, where should I be looking? Can you link to specific examples? If you want to know about where science is used to predict the behavior of complex systems, one place to look would be the scientific literature of fields which are concerned with the behavior of complex systems.
  - IanDrake 13y ago
    Do you realize you basically just said "If you know where to look, you'll find it"? Thanks MOTO. Any links?

j_baker 13y ago

Medicine. "You're going to die in 20 years due to your diabetes."