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To answer your question - Yes, they do. I call this "shifting the burden of responsibility"[1] and it basically boils down to this - imagine you're an IT manag

by mbesto 13y ago

To answer your question - Yes, they do. I call this "shifting the burden of responsibility"[1] and it basically boils down to this - imagine you're an IT manager and your boss says "Should we support Blackberry anymore?" Who is the authority to say whether the answer is Yes or No to this question? If you (the IT manager) think you are...What happens when you're wrong? Hence why you simply shift this over to someone or some organization who has established themselves as the authority. This is why the analyst industry exists. [1] - http://www.techdisruptive.com/2013/07/18/shifting-the-burden-of-responsibility/ http://www.techdisruptive.com/2013/07/18/shifting-the-burden...

sambeau 13y ago
In my experience it isn't the IT managers who trust Gartner —it's the IT-managers' managers. Is this just because non-IT managers don't trust what IT managers say? If so then this is a case of shifting the burden of responsibility of “shifting the burden of responsibility”. Non-IT managers blame IT managers for their use of analysts as a comfort blanket. I realise there are analysts for all kinds of industry but I can't think of another example where analysts wield the kind of power that Gartner hold over the IT industry.
- mbesto 13y ago
  I think you're slightly taking my example too pedantically. In any case... > Is this just because non-IT managers don't trust what IT managers say? Yes, but the non-IT managers are even more uninformed. Everyone at some point is to blame, unless you can point that blame outside of your organization. Imagine this conversation going all the way up to the CEO. "But Gartner said to stop supporting Blackberry" holds some good value to her. > Non-IT managers blame IT managers for their use of analysts as a comfort blanket. I'm sort of confused by this comment, is this a statement you're trying to make? Either way, as you said, the key decision maker is usually the non-IT managers (usually at VP level or higher). > I realise there are analysts for all kinds of industry but I can't think of another example where analysts wield the kind of power that Gartner hold over the IT industry. I don't know many other industries that (1) have so many solutions (2) available to them globally (3) at so many different price points (4) with such a complexity of features. Finance rings a bell, but the competition is much higher. Some good comments about the woes of the analyst industry in big tech: http://blog.softwareinsider.org/2013/08/09/personal-log-the-sad-state-of-the-industry-analyst-business-and-the-need-for-a-code-of-ethics/ http://blog.softwareinsider.org/2013/08/09/personal-log-the-...
venomsnake 13y ago
And how reliable is Gartner compared to let's say coin flip? Saying now blackberry is dead is post-factum. This was valuable info in 2010 but right now it is obvious.
- mbesto 13y ago
  > Saying now blackberry is dead Blackberry is dead?!? What?! A company and device that sells 6.8m handsets is dead?! its 6.8m handset sales in the quarter to the end of May[1] > but right now it is obvious Is it? Let's play a game... Groupon and Twitter are/were built using Ruby on Rails. This is obvious, right? Does it mean IT depts should be ditching their .NET/Java shops for Rails? That answer is obvious right? [1]http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/jul/18/nokia-revenues-fall-lumia-sales?CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2 http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/jul/18/nokia-reve...
  - ctdonath 13y ago
    A company and device that sells 6.8m handsets is dead?! Rough number: (sell 6.8M handsets per quarter) / (expected $1B loss this quarter) = they're losing $147 on every handset. They'll have to raise the price on the device (every device sold) some 33% just to break even. And that's assuming sales don't plummet as a result of a significant price increase. "I'm dead, I just haven't stopped moving yet." - Zaphod
    - tanzam75 13y ago
      > Rough number: (sell 6.8M handsets per quarter) / (expected $1B loss this quarter) = they're losing $147 on every handset. That's not how it works. $934 million of that $965 million loss comes from a non-cash charge for inventory and supply commitments. In other words, they lost money on the phones they did not sell. Assuming they can scale down linearly, this will not be a recurring expense. Excluding non-cash charges, and adjusting for taxes, Blackberry lost $248 million last quarter. This is how much they lost on the phones that they actually did sell. But even that's not quite good news. Because Blackberry sold only 3.7 million smartphones last quarter -- the 6.8 million number was for first quarter. So $248 million / 3.7 million = $67 loss per phone.

by mbesto 13y ago

sambeau 13y ago

In my experience it isn't the IT managers who trust Gartner —it's the IT-managers' managers. Is this just because non-IT managers don't trust what IT managers say? If so then this is a case of shifting the burden of responsibility of “shifting the burden of responsibility”. Non-IT managers blame IT managers for their use of analysts as a comfort blanket. I realise there are analysts for all kinds of industry but I can't think of another example where analysts wield the kind of power that Gartner hold over the IT industry.

mbesto 13y ago
I think you're slightly taking my example too pedantically. In any case... > Is this just because non-IT managers don't trust what IT managers say? Yes, but the non-IT managers are even more uninformed. Everyone at some point is to blame, unless you can point that blame outside of your organization. Imagine this conversation going all the way up to the CEO. "But Gartner said to stop supporting Blackberry" holds some good value to her. > Non-IT managers blame IT managers for their use of analysts as a comfort blanket. I'm sort of confused by this comment, is this a statement you're trying to make? Either way, as you said, the key decision maker is usually the non-IT managers (usually at VP level or higher). > I realise there are analysts for all kinds of industry but I can't think of another example where analysts wield the kind of power that Gartner hold over the IT industry. I don't know many other industries that (1) have so many solutions (2) available to them globally (3) at so many different price points (4) with such a complexity of features. Finance rings a bell, but the competition is much higher. Some good comments about the woes of the analyst industry in big tech: http://blog.softwareinsider.org/2013/08/09/personal-log-the-sad-state-of-the-industry-analyst-business-and-the-need-for-a-code-of-ethics/ http://blog.softwareinsider.org/2013/08/09/personal-log-the-...

venomsnake 13y ago

And how reliable is Gartner compared to let's say coin flip? Saying now blackberry is dead is post-factum. This was valuable info in 2010 but right now it is obvious.

mbesto 13y ago
> Saying now blackberry is dead Blackberry is dead?!? What?! A company and device that sells 6.8m handsets is dead?! its 6.8m handset sales in the quarter to the end of May[1] > but right now it is obvious Is it? Let's play a game... Groupon and Twitter are/were built using Ruby on Rails. This is obvious, right? Does it mean IT depts should be ditching their .NET/Java shops for Rails? That answer is obvious right? [1]http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/jul/18/nokia-revenues-fall-lumia-sales?CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2 http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/jul/18/nokia-reve...
- ctdonath 13y ago
  A company and device that sells 6.8m handsets is dead?! Rough number: (sell 6.8M handsets per quarter) / (expected $1B loss this quarter) = they're losing $147 on every handset. They'll have to raise the price on the device (every device sold) some 33% just to break even. And that's assuming sales don't plummet as a result of a significant price increase. "I'm dead, I just haven't stopped moving yet." - Zaphod
  - tanzam75 13y ago
    > Rough number: (sell 6.8M handsets per quarter) / (expected $1B loss this quarter) = they're losing $147 on every handset. That's not how it works. $934 million of that $965 million loss comes from a non-cash charge for inventory and supply commitments. In other words, they lost money on the phones they did not sell. Assuming they can scale down linearly, this will not be a recurring expense. Excluding non-cash charges, and adjusting for taxes, Blackberry lost $248 million last quarter. This is how much they lost on the phones that they actually did sell. But even that's not quite good news. Because Blackberry sold only 3.7 million smartphones last quarter -- the 6.8 million number was for first quarter. So $248 million / 3.7 million = $67 loss per phone.