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Gruber's WWDC 2009 Predictions

51 points by mikedouglas 17y ago

Anon84 17y ago
I’m completely convinced that the tablet is real. But I am almost just as convinced that it is not ready to be announced. Patience on this one. I'm hoping he's wrong at least on this count.
- webology 17y ago
  Me too but Gruber has a really good track record on his predictions.
  - mishmash 17y ago
    It might be positive, but I don't really think his record is that great. In my mind, at least, he might break even or float something like a 60% accuracy/trust rating. It would be interesting to see hard numbers of his actual predictions. Anyway, I think many people want to remember him as more accurate than not, because he is one of the most vocal Apple prediction-related pundits there are. Ala, a bit of the ole RDF/DF in action. :)
    - webology 17y ago
      Great idea, it would be interesting to see how the various big name apple geeks like Gruber's predictions actually pan out. The last few years is all I've followed him so I don't doubt he was more off in the past.
  - beamso 17y ago
    Gruber's record was poor until he got an inside source, at which point he really started smacking down predictions from others.
jsz0 17y ago
I think Apple will be looking to diversify the iPhone line which will probably include a cheap iPhone 3G, iPhone 3G Video as the mid-range option, and perhaps this 3GS is the higher end model -- OLED screen, slightly wider, higher specs and background apps along with a premium physical design that sets it apart from the other two iPhone models. It wouldn't surprise me to see support for LTE included as AT&T (and others) will be deploying service heavily in the next 2 years (typical life span of an iPhone?) For Snow Leopard I agree that Apple will probably offer it at a highly reduced price compared to 10.4 or 10.5. There will probably be at least a few surprises we haven't seen yet but nothing that is going to justify a $100+ price for most people. The worst thing that could happen for Apple is for 10.4 & 10.5 to continue lingering around XP style if users don't quickly adopt 10.6. Between lax copy protection and a low price tag Apple could easily move 70-80% of their Intel users to 10.6 within a year. There have been rumors Windows 7 upgrade pricing is going to be quite cheap so Apple has to at least match that price. (both 7 & 10.6 are basically maintenance releases and probably have the same approximate value to consumers) I don't expect any other big surprises. Apple wants the new iPhone to be the #1 story coming out of WWDC.
- mcav 17y ago
  I'd bet against a "lite" iPhone for now, since Apple is still locked into AT&T for another year. If they wanted to release a new "iPhone Mini", it would make sense to do so when (or if) they open up to other carriers, to make a play at the bigger market share.
- potatolicious 17y ago
  Oh God, I hope the OLED screen thing pans out - it would be a huge step forward for Apple, the kind of step they need right now to set themselves apart from me-too offerings that are starting to hit the market. Did anyone else here notice that a new iTunes update is out, which enables support for iPhone OS 3.0? This seems like jumping the gun if the hardware isn't due out for another month. Are we going to see hardware availability immediately this week?
mariorz 17y ago
Funny no mention of an app store for desktop apps. It seems obvious this would be the next strategic step for iTunes. As it is, OSX is in dire need of a package manager.
- chris24 17y ago
  http://www.apple.com/downloads/macosx/ http://www.apple.com/downloads/macosx/ seems to serve a similar purpose to developers, though - listing apps from within a standard directory. I'd imagine that it's much easier to have a user download an app and drag it to their Apps folder on their Mac than manually finding and installing apps seamlessly on a mobile device. It seems to me like an App Store for Mac developers would only benefit Apple with their profit from it.
  - mariorz 17y ago
    But that's not a package manager. Think macports with a pretty UI and servers in Cupertino. And yes, apple would surely be happy with the sales commissions and tightening developer control.
    - chris24 17y ago
      That'd be nice, but what would be in it for the developer?
      - derefr 17y ago
        Cross-platform sales, distribution, and package/upgrade management. iTunes is on Windows, too.
        dchest 17y ago
        Why would Apple want to drive cross-platform sales?
- snprbob86 17y ago
  I'd expect this to take the form of a stand-alone App Store app. I'm quite sure that Apple will do this eventually. It has done wonders for the iPhone, but they might hold off until the iPhone App Store excitement shows signs of dying down.
yan 17y ago
Anyone here at WWDC? edit: if so, send me an email.
jsz0 17y ago
If Apple hasn't completely forgotten about the Apple TV it would be interesting to see a new revision launched with a full SDK. If Apple doesn't care about the device that much they should really open it up to third parties to fill the gaps in its functionality. Give it a halfway decent 3D chip and a simple motion controller (with iPhone/Touch integration too, of course) they could probably capitalize on all the developers doing games for the iPhone market. It may be Apple's last real chance to get a foot hold in the set top market because both Sony & Microsoft are starting to push more and more non-gaming apps out. Apple will almost surely never be a #1 but they could carve out a very respectable market for themselves -- mostly casual gamers and Internet media consumers who may not be interested in "hardcore" gaming. (and there are lots of us)
- deleted 17y ago
  [deleted]

51 points by mikedouglas 17y ago

I’m completely convinced that the tablet is real. But I am almost just as convinced that it is not ready to be announced. Patience on this one. I'm hoping he's wrong at least on this count.

webology 17y ago
Me too but Gruber has a really good track record on his predictions.
- mishmash 17y ago
  It might be positive, but I don't really think his record is that great. In my mind, at least, he might break even or float something like a 60% accuracy/trust rating. It would be interesting to see hard numbers of his actual predictions. Anyway, I think many people want to remember him as more accurate than not, because he is one of the most vocal Apple prediction-related pundits there are. Ala, a bit of the ole RDF/DF in action. :)
  - webology 17y ago
    Great idea, it would be interesting to see how the various big name apple geeks like Gruber's predictions actually pan out. The last few years is all I've followed him so I don't doubt he was more off in the past.
- beamso 17y ago
  Gruber's record was poor until he got an inside source, at which point he really started smacking down predictions from others.

jsz0 17y ago

I think Apple will be looking to diversify the iPhone line which will probably include a cheap iPhone 3G, iPhone 3G Video as the mid-range option, and perhaps this 3GS is the higher end model -- OLED screen, slightly wider, higher specs and background apps along with a premium physical design that sets it apart from the other two iPhone models. It wouldn't surprise me to see support for LTE included as AT&T (and others) will be deploying service heavily in the next 2 years (typical life span of an iPhone?) For Snow Leopard I agree that Apple will probably offer it at a highly reduced price compared to 10.4 or 10.5. There will probably be at least a few surprises we haven't seen yet but nothing that is going to justify a $100+ price for most people. The worst thing that could happen for Apple is for 10.4 & 10.5 to continue lingering around XP style if users don't quickly adopt 10.6. Between lax copy protection and a low price tag Apple could easily move 70-80% of their Intel users to 10.6 within a year. There have been rumors Windows 7 upgrade pricing is going to be quite cheap so Apple has to at least match that price. (both 7 & 10.6 are basically maintenance releases and probably have the same approximate value to consumers) I don't expect any other big surprises. Apple wants the new iPhone to be the #1 story coming out of WWDC.

mcav 17y ago
I'd bet against a "lite" iPhone for now, since Apple is still locked into AT&T for another year. If they wanted to release a new "iPhone Mini", it would make sense to do so when (or if) they open up to other carriers, to make a play at the bigger market share.
potatolicious 17y ago
Oh God, I hope the OLED screen thing pans out - it would be a huge step forward for Apple, the kind of step they need right now to set themselves apart from me-too offerings that are starting to hit the market. Did anyone else here notice that a new iTunes update is out, which enables support for iPhone OS 3.0? This seems like jumping the gun if the hardware isn't due out for another month. Are we going to see hardware availability immediately this week?

mariorz 17y ago

Funny no mention of an app store for desktop apps. It seems obvious this would be the next strategic step for iTunes. As it is, OSX is in dire need of a package manager.

chris24 17y ago
http://www.apple.com/downloads/macosx/ http://www.apple.com/downloads/macosx/ seems to serve a similar purpose to developers, though - listing apps from within a standard directory. I'd imagine that it's much easier to have a user download an app and drag it to their Apps folder on their Mac than manually finding and installing apps seamlessly on a mobile device. It seems to me like an App Store for Mac developers would only benefit Apple with their profit from it.
- mariorz 17y ago
  But that's not a package manager. Think macports with a pretty UI and servers in Cupertino. And yes, apple would surely be happy with the sales commissions and tightening developer control.
  - chris24 17y ago
    That'd be nice, but what would be in it for the developer?
    - derefr 17y ago
      Cross-platform sales, distribution, and package/upgrade management. iTunes is on Windows, too.
      - dchest 17y ago
        Why would Apple want to drive cross-platform sales?
snprbob86 17y ago
I'd expect this to take the form of a stand-alone App Store app. I'm quite sure that Apple will do this eventually. It has done wonders for the iPhone, but they might hold off until the iPhone App Store excitement shows signs of dying down.

yan 17y ago

Anyone here at WWDC? edit: if so, send me an email.

jsz0 17y ago

If Apple hasn't completely forgotten about the Apple TV it would be interesting to see a new revision launched with a full SDK. If Apple doesn't care about the device that much they should really open it up to third parties to fill the gaps in its functionality. Give it a halfway decent 3D chip and a simple motion controller (with iPhone/Touch integration too, of course) they could probably capitalize on all the developers doing games for the iPhone market. It may be Apple's last real chance to get a foot hold in the set top market because both Sony & Microsoft are starting to push more and more non-gaming apps out. Apple will almost surely never be a #1 but they could carve out a very respectable market for themselves -- mostly casual gamers and Internet media consumers who may not be interested in "hardcore" gaming. (and there are lots of us)

deleted 17y ago
[deleted]