5 ms·

Take a look at what happened with the individual mandate in Massachusetts. About 1% of the population (48,000 in 2009) paid the penalty, set at 50% of the minim

by MaysonL 13y ago

Take a look at what happened with the individual mandate in Massachusetts. About 1% of the population (48,000 in 2009) paid the penalty, set at 50% of the minimum insurance premium. Even assuming that the rest of the country has people stupider than Massachusetts, and more ornery, it's really not going to be anywhere near as bad as you're predicting.

pjbrunet 13y ago
I predicted 5% of uninsured who don't want insurance will pay the fine. About 15% don't have health insurance. If it turns out 1% of the population pays an IRS fine, that's even more people than I predicted. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_insurance_coverage_in_the_United_States http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_insurance_coverage_in_th...
- MaysonL 13y ago
  No, you said, and I copy-paste quote "90% will do nothing and get a $500 fine from the IRS."
  - pjbrunet 13y ago
    1. I said 90% of uninsured. That would be 90% of 15% of the population. Clearly I'm not saying 90% of the population will get fined. But my estimate will be way off, see #2. 2. Getting fined (what I said) and paying a fine (what you said) are totally different. Only 41% of people file tax returns. You can bet that percentage is much higher among the uninsured. So right off the bat, over half the uninsured should be fined. Those people were in my 90% estimate but there's really no way to fine them. I just did some searching and it apprears you are "exempt from the requirement to obtain minimum essential coverage...if you are not a U.S. citizen, a U.S. national or an alien lawfully present in the U.S." http://www.irs.gov/uac/Questions-and-Answers-on-the-Individual-Shared-Responsibility-Provision http://www.irs.gov/uac/Questions-and-Answers-on-the-Individu... This is also interesting: "44% of (people who file taxes) were unaware that they would face a penalty for not purchasing coverage." http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/02/15/how-hr-block-plans-to-capitalize-on-obamacare/ http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/02/15/h...

by MaysonL 13y ago

pjbrunet 13y ago

I predicted 5% of uninsured who don't want insurance will pay the fine. About 15% don't have health insurance. If it turns out 1% of the population pays an IRS fine, that's even more people than I predicted. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_insurance_coverage_in_the_United_States http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_insurance_coverage_in_th...

MaysonL 13y ago
No, you said, and I copy-paste quote "90% will do nothing and get a $500 fine from the IRS."
- pjbrunet 13y ago
  1. I said 90% of uninsured. That would be 90% of 15% of the population. Clearly I'm not saying 90% of the population will get fined. But my estimate will be way off, see #2. 2. Getting fined (what I said) and paying a fine (what you said) are totally different. Only 41% of people file tax returns. You can bet that percentage is much higher among the uninsured. So right off the bat, over half the uninsured should be fined. Those people were in my 90% estimate but there's really no way to fine them. I just did some searching and it apprears you are "exempt from the requirement to obtain minimum essential coverage...if you are not a U.S. citizen, a U.S. national or an alien lawfully present in the U.S." http://www.irs.gov/uac/Questions-and-Answers-on-the-Individual-Shared-Responsibility-Provision http://www.irs.gov/uac/Questions-and-Answers-on-the-Individu... This is also interesting: "44% of (people who file taxes) were unaware that they would face a penalty for not purchasing coverage." http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/02/15/how-hr-block-plans-to-capitalize-on-obamacare/ http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/02/15/h...