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This is what I think will happen: 1% of uninsured will jump through all the hoops and apply for a subsidy (which is more complicated and more expensive than jus

This is what I think will happen: 1% of uninsured will jump through all the hoops and apply for a subsidy (which is more complicated and more expensive than just picking up the phone and calling BCBS for a high-deductible plan.) 9% of uninsured will finally get insurance to avoid the $500 IRS fine. 90% will do nothing and get a $500 fine from the IRS. 5% of those people will pay the $500 fine which is cheaper than buying insurance. 45% of them will throw the bill in the trash, assuming the IRS knows where they live/work. The other 50% will raise hell they are not paying $500 to the IRS, Obama will feel like a bully and Obamacare will be history. If I have it totally wrong, don't just downvote, please explain why. I really don't know if the IRS fine will be $500, that's just a number I heard thrown around last year. A $500 fine is less than half the cost a cheap insurance plan for one person, and much cheaper if you have a family. If you're living paycheck to paycheck, a possible $500 fine (that's not even a reality yet) is much less pain than buying insurance right now. My percentage estimates are off the top of my head (not scientific) but I heard 1/3 Americans don't file tax returns so that figured into my estimates. And remember we're talking about uninsured people, I'm thinking a large percentage of them are just getting by.

clavalle 13y ago
>(which is more complicated and more expensive than just picking up the phone and calling BCBS. Source? >The other 50% will raise hell they are not paying $500 to the IRS, Obama will feel like a bully and Obamacare will be history. I am not sure how you make that leap. I think a lot of people will go for the subsidy. Especially people with kids. Two people who together make $30000 with three kids will pay $600/yr for coverage while the fine would be $1000. It only makes sense.
- pjbrunet 13y ago
  At this point the fine is still imaginary. Nobody has a $1000 fine in their mailbox yet. People are used to getting money back from the IRS. Most people don't understand what a bill from the IRS means. How many people even know there will be a fine? Has Obama talked about the fine yet? Also, even if you apply for the subsidy, you'll be paying full price for an expensive plan in the meantime. A family that's just getting by (that's why they are uninsured) it's going to be much more affordable to get a high-deductible plan and forget Obamacare altogether. If you're just getting by, you're not planning your finances a year in advance for when the subsidy check might come in the mail. The uninsured are thinking about next month, not a year from now. What percentage of people are sure they will get that government subsidy check? You're assuming uninsured people have extra money saved to pay for a full-price insurance plan right now.
  - bbatsell 13y ago
    > Also, even if you apply for the subsidy, you'll be paying full price for an expensive plan in the meantime. This isn't true. The subsidy is estimated and applied when you sign up for a plan, and your premiums are adjusted to account for the estimated subsidy: https://www.healthcare.gov/will-i-qualify-to-save-on-monthly-premiums/ https://www.healthcare.gov/will-i-qualify-to-save-on-monthly...
    - pjbrunet 13y ago
      That's interesting but according to your link, Advance Premium Tax Credit <> Refundable Credit. In practice, what will be the difference? How does an existing high-deductible plan compare to a Bronze plan with the Advanced Premium Credit applied? If it's significantly more coverage, if it's significantly cheaper, if it's easy to sign up for, then it might be attractive to that percentage of uninsured smart enough to jump through the extra hoops, if they actually want insurance, if they can afford a Bronze plan with the "advance" applied. That's a lot of ifs. I think a large percentage of uninsured will opt for the status quo (do nothing) that's just human nature. According to your link, you have to file your tax return to get the difference (refundable - advanced) paid to you. What percentage of uninsured file tax returns?
  - MaysonL 13y ago
    Take a look at what happened with the individual mandate in Massachusetts. About 1% of the population (48,000 in 2009) paid the penalty, set at 50% of the minimum insurance premium. Even assuming that the rest of the country has people stupider than Massachusetts, and more ornery, it's really not going to be anywhere near as bad as you're predicting.
    - pjbrunet 13y ago
      I predicted 5% of uninsured who don't want insurance will pay the fine. About 15% don't have health insurance. If it turns out 1% of the population pays an IRS fine, that's even more people than I predicted. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_insurance_coverage_in_the_United_States http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_insurance_coverage_in_th...
patja 13y ago
What are the hoops you think you have to jump through to get a subsidy? The way I understand it is that the exchange website where you shop for plans already has your 2013 income tax return's MAGI figure and will automatically present you with the subsidy based on that. You can tweak it if you predict your 2014 income will differ significantly, and when you file your 2014 tax return there will be a true up if you actual income is really different from the prediction your subsidy was based on.
- pjbrunet 13y ago
  Well, there's the marketplace application. Let's see the bounce rate on that baby. Then you need to file tax returns to get the tax credit. According to this link, 41% of the population does not file a tax return. I bet the percentage is higher among the uninsured, think about it. http://taxfoundation.org/article/number-americans-paying-zero-federal-income-tax-grows-434-million http://taxfoundation.org/article/number-americans-paying-zer...

clavalle 13y ago

>(which is more complicated and more expensive than just picking up the phone and calling BCBS. Source? >The other 50% will raise hell they are not paying $500 to the IRS, Obama will feel like a bully and Obamacare will be history. I am not sure how you make that leap. I think a lot of people will go for the subsidy. Especially people with kids. Two people who together make $30000 with three kids will pay $600/yr for coverage while the fine would be $1000. It only makes sense.

pjbrunet 13y ago
At this point the fine is still imaginary. Nobody has a $1000 fine in their mailbox yet. People are used to getting money back from the IRS. Most people don't understand what a bill from the IRS means. How many people even know there will be a fine? Has Obama talked about the fine yet? Also, even if you apply for the subsidy, you'll be paying full price for an expensive plan in the meantime. A family that's just getting by (that's why they are uninsured) it's going to be much more affordable to get a high-deductible plan and forget Obamacare altogether. If you're just getting by, you're not planning your finances a year in advance for when the subsidy check might come in the mail. The uninsured are thinking about next month, not a year from now. What percentage of people are sure they will get that government subsidy check? You're assuming uninsured people have extra money saved to pay for a full-price insurance plan right now.
- bbatsell 13y ago
  > Also, even if you apply for the subsidy, you'll be paying full price for an expensive plan in the meantime. This isn't true. The subsidy is estimated and applied when you sign up for a plan, and your premiums are adjusted to account for the estimated subsidy: https://www.healthcare.gov/will-i-qualify-to-save-on-monthly-premiums/ https://www.healthcare.gov/will-i-qualify-to-save-on-monthly...
  - pjbrunet 13y ago
    That's interesting but according to your link, Advance Premium Tax Credit <> Refundable Credit. In practice, what will be the difference? How does an existing high-deductible plan compare to a Bronze plan with the Advanced Premium Credit applied? If it's significantly more coverage, if it's significantly cheaper, if it's easy to sign up for, then it might be attractive to that percentage of uninsured smart enough to jump through the extra hoops, if they actually want insurance, if they can afford a Bronze plan with the "advance" applied. That's a lot of ifs. I think a large percentage of uninsured will opt for the status quo (do nothing) that's just human nature. According to your link, you have to file your tax return to get the difference (refundable - advanced) paid to you. What percentage of uninsured file tax returns?
- MaysonL 13y ago
  Take a look at what happened with the individual mandate in Massachusetts. About 1% of the population (48,000 in 2009) paid the penalty, set at 50% of the minimum insurance premium. Even assuming that the rest of the country has people stupider than Massachusetts, and more ornery, it's really not going to be anywhere near as bad as you're predicting.
  - pjbrunet 13y ago
    I predicted 5% of uninsured who don't want insurance will pay the fine. About 15% don't have health insurance. If it turns out 1% of the population pays an IRS fine, that's even more people than I predicted. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_insurance_coverage_in_the_United_States http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_insurance_coverage_in_th...

patja 13y ago

What are the hoops you think you have to jump through to get a subsidy? The way I understand it is that the exchange website where you shop for plans already has your 2013 income tax return's MAGI figure and will automatically present you with the subsidy based on that. You can tweak it if you predict your 2014 income will differ significantly, and when you file your 2014 tax return there will be a true up if you actual income is really different from the prediction your subsidy was based on.

pjbrunet 13y ago
Well, there's the marketplace application. Let's see the bounce rate on that baby. Then you need to file tax returns to get the tax credit. According to this link, 41% of the population does not file a tax return. I bet the percentage is higher among the uninsured, think about it. http://taxfoundation.org/article/number-americans-paying-zero-federal-income-tax-grows-434-million http://taxfoundation.org/article/number-americans-paying-zer...