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Why is this a problem? These people should just allocate their time to the new opportunities created by the downturn. I have several friends who are unemploye

by garply 17y ago

Why is this a problem? These people should just allocate their time to the new opportunities created by the downturn. I have several friends who are unemployed recent grads and they seem to be just sitting on their asses, sending out resumes, waiting for the economy to turn around. Why they aren't starting their own projects or seeking consulting work (I believe consulting / temping is somewhat counter-cyclical?) I can't quite figure out. Seeking employment at a large company is only one investment strategy and perhaps not the best one right now given the fierce competition caused by the downturn.

nostrademons 17y ago
Consulting/temping is very much pro-cyclical. The consultants and temps are the first to go when the economy goes down, and the last to be hired back. Playing devil's advocate here (your suggestion is exactly what I'd do, and it's worked fairly well for me), but... One reason they don't may be that it's almost never rational to start a new project over sending out a resume. The resume offers the possibility of immediate monetary payoff for relatively little work, and while the chances are low (particularly in this economy), they're certainly higher than the chances that your new project will succeed. The latter has no immediate monetary payoff, requires lots of work, and has risks that are so varied that you don't even have a framework for evaluating them. It's only when you put a lot of these risks together in sort of a "career portfolio" that it makes sense to take them. Any individual project will probably fail, but together they give you the skills and experience that will a.) get you hired and b.) let you succeed more often with these independent projects. Alas, in my experience most people don't take such a long-term view of their careers...
- garply 17y ago
  That consulting is pro-cyclical surprises me - I always figured that large corporations had some people who weren't terribly efficient and that in a downturn they would be cut and their workloads would be outsourced to a 3rd party, whom the employer wouldn't need to offer perks and raises and who would have to pay full FICA him/herself.
  - nostrademons 17y ago
    It's a huge pain to fire an employee - there're dozens of potential "wrongful termination" lawsuit hitches, and if you run into any of them, you've just cost the company more in legal bills than you'll ever save in that employee's salary. For that reason, companies usually will keep full-timers even if they aren't quite as efficient as consultants or new hires, because the costs of getting it wrong and inviting a lawsuit don't outweigh the marginal benefits. Unless the employee is grossly incompetent, in which case you both save more in lost productivity, and there's a lower chance of a successful lawsuit...
gaius 17y ago
How many people hire consultants with no experiences? What would they consult on? Anyway, personal projects are better than nothing but they aren't a substitute for commercial experience, which is about a lot more than just coding. It comes down to not knowing what you don't know. Employed programmers deal all the time with people saying "can we do X" where X is something you'd never considered and might require some research to figure out, and the actual code is simple when you come to write it. People working alone can't help but approach from the angle of "I can do Y, so that's what I'll do".

by garply 17y ago

nostrademons 17y ago

Consulting/temping is very much pro-cyclical. The consultants and temps are the first to go when the economy goes down, and the last to be hired back. Playing devil's advocate here (your suggestion is exactly what I'd do, and it's worked fairly well for me), but... One reason they don't may be that it's almost never rational to start a new project over sending out a resume. The resume offers the possibility of immediate monetary payoff for relatively little work, and while the chances are low (particularly in this economy), they're certainly higher than the chances that your new project will succeed. The latter has no immediate monetary payoff, requires lots of work, and has risks that are so varied that you don't even have a framework for evaluating them. It's only when you put a lot of these risks together in sort of a "career portfolio" that it makes sense to take them. Any individual project will probably fail, but together they give you the skills and experience that will a.) get you hired and b.) let you succeed more often with these independent projects. Alas, in my experience most people don't take such a long-term view of their careers...

garply 17y ago
That consulting is pro-cyclical surprises me - I always figured that large corporations had some people who weren't terribly efficient and that in a downturn they would be cut and their workloads would be outsourced to a 3rd party, whom the employer wouldn't need to offer perks and raises and who would have to pay full FICA him/herself.
- nostrademons 17y ago
  It's a huge pain to fire an employee - there're dozens of potential "wrongful termination" lawsuit hitches, and if you run into any of them, you've just cost the company more in legal bills than you'll ever save in that employee's salary. For that reason, companies usually will keep full-timers even if they aren't quite as efficient as consultants or new hires, because the costs of getting it wrong and inviting a lawsuit don't outweigh the marginal benefits. Unless the employee is grossly incompetent, in which case you both save more in lost productivity, and there's a lower chance of a successful lawsuit...

gaius 17y ago

How many people hire consultants with no experiences? What would they consult on? Anyway, personal projects are better than nothing but they aren't a substitute for commercial experience, which is about a lot more than just coding. It comes down to not knowing what you don't know. Employed programmers deal all the time with people saying "can we do X" where X is something you'd never considered and might require some research to figure out, and the actual code is simple when you come to write it. People working alone can't help but approach from the angle of "I can do Y, so that's what I'll do".