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15 years just isn't long enough: http://tamino.wordpress.com/2013/09/21/double-standard/ http://tamino.wordpress.com/2013/09/21/double-standard/ Since 1975, gl
by anon1385 13y ago
15 years just isn't long enough: http://tamino.wordpress.com/2013/09/21/double-standard/ http://tamino.wordpress.com/2013/09/21/double-standard/
Since 1975, global average surface air temperature has increased at a rate of 0.17 deg.C/decade (estimated by linear regression using either the NASA GISS or HadCRUT4 data sets). But the rate of increase hasn’t been perfectly constant over that entire time span.
As a matter of fact, there’s a 15-year time span during which the rate is notably different. Fifteen whole years!!! By at least one calculation, the difference is “statistically significant.”
That 15-year time span covers the years 1992 through 2006, during which the rate of warming was 0.28 deg.C/decade. That’s a lot faster than the warming rate from 1975 to now.
What was your position in 2006, given that 15 year trend? Is your argument that when the 15 year trend is above the longer term trend it's due to natural variability and doesn't indicate a long term change but when it's below then it's due to a real shift and that global temperatures are about to start going down?
- talmand 13y agoWait, so you're saying the predictions made 15 years ago about the last 15 years are wrong but that's okay because 15 years isn't enough time to make an accurate prediction?