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The fact is that the current warming is well below projected temperatures. It could reverse in the next ten years and prove everyone right, but the problem with

The fact is that the current warming is well below projected temperatures. It could reverse in the next ten years and prove everyone right, but the problem with global warming (which I agree is happening) is that it doesn't give us a scientific playground where we can try different things out. It is more like economics than it is like material science.

anon1385 13y ago
>The fact is that the current warming is well below projected temperatures. That is pretty misleading. We don't claim to be able to model temperature over periods of time that short. You can easily pick other 15 year spans where the rate of warming was well above 'projected temperatures'. For example 1992 - 2006 was 0.28 deg.C/decade[1]. Were you going around in 2006 talking about how badly climate scientists had screwed up because warming was so much faster than they predicted? If not why are you doing it now? [1] http://tamino.wordpress.com/2013/09/21/double-standard/ http://tamino.wordpress.com/2013/09/21/double-standard/
- joshuahedlund 13y ago
  > We don't claim to be able to model temperature over periods of time that short. Right, that's why we get graphs with confidence intervals, right? From my understanding, the previous warming was still within the alleged confidence intervals. However, instead of accelerating as expected, it's about to fall out of the projected intervals completely[1] [1]http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21574461-climate-may-be-heating-up-less-response-greenhouse-gas-emissions http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/2157446...
jellicle 13y ago
> The fact is that the current warming is well below projected temperatures. Well, no.
- sally888 13y ago
  Actually, yes. Even the IPCC has been lowering predictions. http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-wXkm-8pKPKE/UjhUMlXq44I/AAAAAAAAC8k/8fuCGwglvoE/s1600/GlobTemps.jpg http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-wXkm-8pKPKE/UjhUMlXq44I/AAAAAAAAC8...
  - jellicle 13y ago
    Actually, no. Your chart, by omitting the prediction range for each of those, does not speak to the original claim that "global warming is well below predicted temperatures". It is not. (And you should perhaps read that chart again if you think it is showing you that the "IPCC has been lowering predictions".) It is just incredibly embarrassing that global warming deniers can't even read the reports which they so vehemently believe to be false.

anon1385 13y ago

>The fact is that the current warming is well below projected temperatures. That is pretty misleading. We don't claim to be able to model temperature over periods of time that short. You can easily pick other 15 year spans where the rate of warming was well above 'projected temperatures'. For example 1992 - 2006 was 0.28 deg.C/decade[1]. Were you going around in 2006 talking about how badly climate scientists had screwed up because warming was so much faster than they predicted? If not why are you doing it now? [1] http://tamino.wordpress.com/2013/09/21/double-standard/ http://tamino.wordpress.com/2013/09/21/double-standard/

joshuahedlund 13y ago
> We don't claim to be able to model temperature over periods of time that short. Right, that's why we get graphs with confidence intervals, right? From my understanding, the previous warming was still within the alleged confidence intervals. However, instead of accelerating as expected, it's about to fall out of the projected intervals completely[1] [1]http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21574461-climate-may-be-heating-up-less-response-greenhouse-gas-emissions http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/2157446...

jellicle 13y ago

> The fact is that the current warming is well below projected temperatures. Well, no.

sally888 13y ago
Actually, yes. Even the IPCC has been lowering predictions. http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-wXkm-8pKPKE/UjhUMlXq44I/AAAAAAAAC8k/8fuCGwglvoE/s1600/GlobTemps.jpg http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-wXkm-8pKPKE/UjhUMlXq44I/AAAAAAAAC8...
- jellicle 13y ago
  Actually, no. Your chart, by omitting the prediction range for each of those, does not speak to the original claim that "global warming is well below predicted temperatures". It is not. (And you should perhaps read that chart again if you think it is showing you that the "IPCC has been lowering predictions".) It is just incredibly embarrassing that global warming deniers can't even read the reports which they so vehemently believe to be false.