4 ms·

You sure you want the same standard of living as 1950? No A/C, high-maintenance car (1, if any), fast-perishing food, data bandwidth orders of magnitude of orde

You sure you want the same standard of living as 1950? No A/C, high-maintenance car (1, if any), fast-perishing food, data bandwidth orders of magnitude of orders of magnitude (not a typo) lower, half the living space, health care by which I'd be dead four times over by now, 45RPM records, etc. Methinks you're getting your 4x standard of living's worth.

wwweston 13y ago
There's only a connection between the two if it's our 4x productivity plus same/increased effort that's actually giving us these things. Personally, though, I might well take give up a car & A/C, live on fresher/less processed food, sleep in a smaller space but spend more time outside, spend more time with paper and less with electronics, and listen to/play live music vs digital recordings. Particularly if I was only working 11 hours a week.
toomuchtodo 13y ago
You're assuming costs have remained the same for goods and services consumers demand. The cost of electricity is plummeting due to renewables, digital services and IP have zero marginal cost, Moore's Law, etc. People are eschewing cars, and in the next 5-10 years cars will be a service, not something you own. The issue is there are still inelastic demand services that need their costs driven down drastically: Education and healthcare. I'd also suggest petroleum being displaced for transportation as well. Reducing the cost of these services reduces the amount of work needed to consume said services. I argue an 11-15 hour work week is still possible as technology and innovation continue to move forward.
- cgore 13y ago
  People aren't eschewing cars, outside of a few specific urban areas. SOME people in NYC, SanFran, and a few other cities are eschewing cars. This has always been the case. Renting cars is now just getting a bit easier. But most people in the developed world will continue to buy cars and own them.
  - toomuchtodo 13y ago
    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/08/dot-vehicle-miles-driven-decreased-04.html http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/08/dot-vehicle-miles-... "As we've discussed, gasoline prices are just part of the story. The lack of growth in miles driven over the last 5+ years is probably also due to the lingering effects of the great recession (high unemployment rate and lack of wage growth), the aging of the overall population (over 55 drivers drive fewer miles) and changing driving habits of young drivers." http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/nhts.cfm http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/nhts.cfm Why Young People Are Driving Less and What It Means for Transportation Policy http://www.uspirg.org/reports/usp/transportation-and-new-generation http://www.uspirg.org/reports/usp/transportation-and-new-gen...
    - cgore 13y ago
      The Great Recession will hopefully stop eventually, and then you can expect to see the unemployed 18-35 year-olds get jobs, buy cars (among other things), and drive again.
      - toomuchtodo 13y ago
        It won't end, and we don't see people driving in a big way again. Data has shown that between 55+ retiring and younger potential drivers preferring not to drive, vehicle sales have plateaued. If self-driving cars take off in the next ~5 years, that'll be the death of a large part of the auto industry.
        cgore 13y ago
        I'm optimistic. Economies go up and down, sometimes in long cycles, but I think this is bound to turn for the better eventually. I'm doing fine financially and have a good job even in this economy, software development still seeming to be a growing field, but I have some friends with other degrees (or no degrees) in a lot worse shape than me. So I hope for them my optimism isn't wrong.
tspike 13y ago
Yes, I'd very happily take the 1950s standard of living along with a stable 11 hour workweek. Where do I sign up?
- ctdonath 13y ago
  If you want it, you can make it happen. You're basically asking for a part-time contract programming gig (or whatever your specialty equates to); I've done those at times for tidy sums. Smaller '50s-ish homes exist and are quite affordable; you could also save up the cash and build your own (I just found a nice half-acre rural lot in driving distance of work for $1700, and a workable 2-story small-frame "house" is available from Home Depot for about $8000 (you add amenities over time)). Cars can be had cheap, downgrade to a cheap prepaid dumphone no-data plan, rediscover frugal living, and you'll work it out. I very nearly did the same, until I got married and she had pricier standards. And once Obamacare kicks in, there might suddenly be a lot of companies looking for "part time" workers interested in 1950s-level health care plans (to wit: none). You asked at just the right time!
  - toomuchtodo 13y ago
    >there might suddenly be a lot of companies looking for "part time" workers interested in 1950s-level health care plans (to wit: none) You are aware that employer-sponsored plans came about in the 40's as a way to get around wage freezes (wage freezes enacted because of World War 2), correct?
ArekDymalski 13y ago
Actually I'm all for 45RPM vinyls.

wwweston 13y ago

There's only a connection between the two if it's our 4x productivity plus same/increased effort that's actually giving us these things. Personally, though, I might well take give up a car & A/C, live on fresher/less processed food, sleep in a smaller space but spend more time outside, spend more time with paper and less with electronics, and listen to/play live music vs digital recordings. Particularly if I was only working 11 hours a week.

toomuchtodo 13y ago

You're assuming costs have remained the same for goods and services consumers demand. The cost of electricity is plummeting due to renewables, digital services and IP have zero marginal cost, Moore's Law, etc. People are eschewing cars, and in the next 5-10 years cars will be a service, not something you own. The issue is there are still inelastic demand services that need their costs driven down drastically: Education and healthcare. I'd also suggest petroleum being displaced for transportation as well. Reducing the cost of these services reduces the amount of work needed to consume said services. I argue an 11-15 hour work week is still possible as technology and innovation continue to move forward.

cgore 13y ago
People aren't eschewing cars, outside of a few specific urban areas. SOME people in NYC, SanFran, and a few other cities are eschewing cars. This has always been the case. Renting cars is now just getting a bit easier. But most people in the developed world will continue to buy cars and own them.
- toomuchtodo 13y ago
  http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/08/dot-vehicle-miles-driven-decreased-04.html http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/08/dot-vehicle-miles-... "As we've discussed, gasoline prices are just part of the story. The lack of growth in miles driven over the last 5+ years is probably also due to the lingering effects of the great recession (high unemployment rate and lack of wage growth), the aging of the overall population (over 55 drivers drive fewer miles) and changing driving habits of young drivers." http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/nhts.cfm http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/nhts.cfm Why Young People Are Driving Less and What It Means for Transportation Policy http://www.uspirg.org/reports/usp/transportation-and-new-generation http://www.uspirg.org/reports/usp/transportation-and-new-gen...
  - cgore 13y ago
    The Great Recession will hopefully stop eventually, and then you can expect to see the unemployed 18-35 year-olds get jobs, buy cars (among other things), and drive again.
    - toomuchtodo 13y ago
      It won't end, and we don't see people driving in a big way again. Data has shown that between 55+ retiring and younger potential drivers preferring not to drive, vehicle sales have plateaued. If self-driving cars take off in the next ~5 years, that'll be the death of a large part of the auto industry.
      - cgore 13y ago
        I'm optimistic. Economies go up and down, sometimes in long cycles, but I think this is bound to turn for the better eventually. I'm doing fine financially and have a good job even in this economy, software development still seeming to be a growing field, but I have some friends with other degrees (or no degrees) in a lot worse shape than me. So I hope for them my optimism isn't wrong.

tspike 13y ago

Yes, I'd very happily take the 1950s standard of living along with a stable 11 hour workweek. Where do I sign up?

ctdonath 13y ago
If you want it, you can make it happen. You're basically asking for a part-time contract programming gig (or whatever your specialty equates to); I've done those at times for tidy sums. Smaller '50s-ish homes exist and are quite affordable; you could also save up the cash and build your own (I just found a nice half-acre rural lot in driving distance of work for $1700, and a workable 2-story small-frame "house" is available from Home Depot for about $8000 (you add amenities over time)). Cars can be had cheap, downgrade to a cheap prepaid dumphone no-data plan, rediscover frugal living, and you'll work it out. I very nearly did the same, until I got married and she had pricier standards. And once Obamacare kicks in, there might suddenly be a lot of companies looking for "part time" workers interested in 1950s-level health care plans (to wit: none). You asked at just the right time!
- toomuchtodo 13y ago
  >there might suddenly be a lot of companies looking for "part time" workers interested in 1950s-level health care plans (to wit: none) You are aware that employer-sponsored plans came about in the 40's as a way to get around wage freezes (wage freezes enacted because of World War 2), correct?

ArekDymalski 13y ago

Actually I'm all for 45RPM vinyls.