2 ms·
Glad to see someone actually looked into the balance sheet before discussing valuation! To be fair I didn't do a detailed analysis into their books - I just ski
by slykat 13y ago
Glad to see someone actually looked into the balance sheet before discussing valuation! To be fair I didn't do a detailed analysis into their books - I just skimmed over their balance sheet.
Nevertheless here's where I think we disagree:
* Inventory will have some liquidation value. Let's discount inventory by 75% which is pretty conservative; you will still get $200M here
* IP - Main disagreement for me is here. Most analysts who have pegged the IP at $2 - $3 bn. Let's put it at $2bn, the lower end of the spectrum [1][2]
6.2 + 2.2 - 3.7 + 2 = $6.7B (~40% above purchase price)
As we can see the main question is the value of the IP (and PPE to a lesser extent). I have absolutely no experience valuing patents, I'm not a patent lawyer, and definitely won't be evaluating their 9K+ patent applications. So unfortunately there's a pretty big unknown in the valuation.
Regardless we have a $4.7B - $6.7B range based on a very quick 15 minute analysis of their balance sheet with an upside of earnings of any profitable lines of business that can be operated independently (if they exist).
My guess is tha Prem Watsa, as former chairman of BBRY, has done a much more rigorous evaluation of their IP and found profitable business lines he wants to keep / spin-off to reach a comfortable margin of safety.
[1] http://money.cnn.com/2013/09/24/technology/enterprise/blackberry-patents/ http://money.cnn.com/2013/09/24/technology/enterprise/blackb...
[2] http://blogs.wsj.com/corporate-intelligence/2013/08/26/the-numbers-behind-blackberrys-patent-goldmine/ http://blogs.wsj.com/corporate-intelligence/2013/08/26/the-n...
- cs702 13y agoslykat: thank you. The value of IP isn't the only question. We also seem to disagree on how quickly value is evaporating! Blackberry sales are bound to decline faster and faster, like a waterfall -- similar to what happened to Nokia's smartphones. After the introduction of iOS and Android in 2007-2008, Nokia's quarterly smartphone unit sales barely budged... at first... but then dropped by two-thirds between Q1 2010 and Q1 2012![1] Liquidating a company of Blackberry's size would take at least two years. Any estimate of liquidation value should take into account the possibility of quarterly unit sales dropping by two-thirds in the near future. -- [1] http://www.dazeinfo.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/post-15.bmp http://www.dazeinfo.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/post-15.b...