Ah, yes - I mis calculated p(strike of any meteor) by a factor of 3500 (the # of planes in the sky, according to the article). I think this should be applied to

Ah, yes - I mis calculated p(strike of any meteor) by a factor of 3500 (the # of planes in the sky, according to the article). I think this should be applied to the probability, not the count of the occasions - but the numbers are small enough that it doesn't make much difference. p(one or meteor strikes) = 1 - ( (1 - p(strike of any meteor))^ (total # meteors) ) (assuming statistical independence, etc). p(strike of any meteor) = 5.82e-13 * 3500 = 2.04E-9 (total # meteors) = 3000 * 365 * 20 (for testing over 20 years) p(one or meteor strikes) = 0.0436 = 4.36%