4 ms·
You know, nearly everything is a "proxy". Kitchen thermometers use bending metal as a "proxy" for temperature. All that matters is accuracy and precision. This
by leot 13y ago
You know, nearly everything is a "proxy". Kitchen thermometers use bending metal as a "proxy" for temperature. All that matters is accuracy and precision. This is how science works, at its base. There's no such thing as "sense data".
True, the signals from tree rings (etc.) are noisier than those from kitchen thermometers. Let's consider, for a moment, how you could verify the precision and come to a conclusion as to the accuracy of those signals: well, when you get the same information coming from multiple seemingly independent sources, it greatly increases your confidence in that information. Hence, if you're doing your modeling right, if you get tree ring data from all over the world, and soil samples from all over the world, and find that, sure enough, there is a common signal visible across all of them, then you say "well, the only thing that can explain this global correlation is the modulation of some global parameters". And you present your data and conclusions to a bunch of people whose job it is to poke holes in it and prove you wrong, and after a bunch of time eventually people whose job it is to prove each other wrong end up roughly agreeing on a small sliver of information that lies at the intersection of all their understandings of the world.
Signals in physics can be noisy too (fortunately, in physics you can take millions of samples). But to say "well, these error bars are too big, so therefore we shouldn't pay any attention to the trend at all -- we can decide to do something when we have much higher confidence in the precise figures. In the meantime, I'm going to oppose tighter fuel economy standards for vehicles, and revenue-neutral carbon taxation, and aggressive subsidization of alternative energy R+D, ... " because god forbid we should all drive around in smaller cars, or that we should stop subsidizing air travel, or that we should too quickly improve solar cell efficiency.