Not trying to be even more of a downer, but top-down market sizing is almost always off by significant orders of magnitude. It's great to say that the total si

Not trying to be even more of a downer, but top-down market sizing is almost always off by significant orders of magnitude. It's great to say that the total size of a market is, on paper, $77 million (or $100 billion). But not only does this fail to reveal how much of it is realistically addressable, the overall number itself is more easily overestimated than underestimated. I'm not saying that Lollipuff is a bad idea, or can't be successful, but one thing to note is that a lot of individuals who buy fake luxury goods do so knowingly.[1] There are various reasons for this. For many, the real product is too expensive. For others, a counterfeit purchase is based on the recognition that an average person can't tell a decent knock-off from an authentic item (so why pay full price to impress friends and passers-by if you don't need to?). Some opt to buy counterfeit items for "everyday use." Net-net: a not insignificant number of the counterfeit sales are intentional transactions. Lollipuff's real market consists of women who want to purchase authentic (used?) luxury items online and who can afford them and who are sufficiently concerned about counterfeits and who seek out alternative purchasing channels to address this concern. Is this a large enough market, and will Lollipuff be able to capture enough of it to have a viable business? I don't know, but I do know that taking the total value of online resales for certain product categories and brands and using those to size the market will produce market size figures that are way too large to be considered realistic. [1] http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/08/us-usa-counterfeit-knockoffs-idUSBRE9070YS20130108 http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/08/us-usa-counterfeit...