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Terrifying question: had this thing detonated, would the powers that be - with only a few minutes to decide whether to defend the homeland while they still coul

Terrifying question: had this thing detonated, would the powers that be - with only a few minutes to decide whether to defend the homeland while they still could - have realized it was an aircraft accident and not a hostile surprise attack? I think you know the answer.

mpyne 13y ago
The answer is that they had both aircraft-tracking radar and "early warning" radar designed to pick up incoming ICBM re-entry vehicles by that time, so it would have been fairly easy to verify that a single nuclear detonation around a militarily and strategically innocouous site was an accident. But don't let that stop you from panicing.
- smtddr 13y ago
  Oh they'd know. The real question is would they have told the public it was an internal accident? Or do some wonderful media-spin and blame whatever country they feel like going to war with...
  - Dove 13y ago
    No one "felt like" going to war during the Cold War. Avoiding war was the top priority in everyone's mind. And I mean everyone -- leadership, public, on both sides. That's why it was a cold war. If anyone on either side had wanted a hot one, they could have started it easily a dozen times over.
    - coldtea 13y ago
      >No one "felt like" going to war during the Cold War. Avoiding war was the top priority in everyone's mind. And I mean everyone -- leadership, public, on both sides. "Noone" felt like going to war with the big other superpower. As for places of strategic interest, they absolutely LOVED going to war over them, Korea, Vietnam, tons of Latin America, etc etc.
- Osiris 13y ago
  I would be highly skeptical that the President would have told the American people "Oops, our bad. That was just an accident". It's very likely that the government would have blamed the attack on someone other than the U.S. even with the evidence in their hands that it was an accident. Seriously, can you imagine a U.S. President admitting to the public that the military just 'accidently' killed millions of people?
  - dragonwriter 13y ago
    An even bigger threat than "the President goes to war to cover up an accident" is what happens with the chain of escalation when the Soviets notice the detonation and go to high alert in case the US thinks that it was a Soviet attack (since the Soviets are less likely than the Americans to know it was a US bomber accident, and therefore not necessarily confident that the US will not think that it was a successful sneak attack of some kind.)
  - jevinskie 13y ago
    So they blame the USSR and say they started a nuclear war? I don't think that would work out better.
  - Dove 13y ago
    In 1961, JFK would have been president. During the Cuban Missile Crisis, when an American U-2 was shot down and the pilot killed, he chose not to retaliate. Not to. Just let the Russians shoot down one of ours, and did nothing. He did the right thing, too. It was an already tense situation, and letting it escalate into all out war . . . no one can say where it would stop. Whatever you think of current politicians, JFK was a great man. There's no way, no way at all, he would have started a global hot war out of sheer pride. But beyond that, it was a very different time. The US really was in mortal combat, which is not something this generation has witnessed. "We will find those terrorists" was a popular message on 9/11. "The Russians hit us for real and we have to hit back," during the Cold War, would not have been. It would have sounded like the end of the world. The political temptation would not have been to make an accident look like a real strike, but -- if anything -- to make a real strike look like an accident.
- bsullivan01 13y ago
  Not necessarily. What if the 'evil empire' had smuggled a small one in US soil?
- coldtea 13y ago
  >But don't let that stop you from panicing. Yes, because radars at the time were so advanced that nothing could go wrong. They were made by the same guys that lost 2 bombs near a major metropolitan area. Yay for engineering!
Dove 13y ago
We already know the answer. There were several close calls during the Cold War, and while the powers involved always chose to respond (they had to, it was doctrine at the time), they always chose to respond cautiously. Both sides wanted to avoid a "hot" war at almost any cost. For an example of how bad things could get with both sides still responding cautiously, read about Able Archer[1]. A first strike in the cold war was expected to be all out -- many, many missiles at once in an attempt to disable the enemy before he could respond. One explosion, in the middle of nowhere, is not a sensible first strike. I'd think "accident" would be the top hypothesis, even if "What are we dealing with?" was definitely a burning question. There were plenty of times when a much more credible first strike came up. Computer glitches that made it look like dozens of missiles were already in the air. Large exercises that looked legitimately like immediate attacks. Those were scary crises, but they were navigated with caution and skill. A lone explosion in the middle of nowhere wouldn't even rate as a close call, I don't think. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Able_Archer_83 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Able_Archer_83
- mtdewcmu 13y ago
  Good point. The military should know where their own planes are, too.
  - lostlogin 13y ago
    Maybe. Their record for knowing where stuff is isn't that good. The Iraq adventure lost $1billion of stuff. This shouldn't be confused with the overall cost (some would also say loss here) of a few trillion dollars for the whole episode. http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-500257_162-3584247.html http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-500257_162-3584247.html
    - twoodfin 13y ago
      Iraq war estimates in the trillions involve some pretty iffy calculations of long-term effects, like guessing the impact on the price of oil. The actually budgetary cost was much lower.
cynwoody 13y ago
I doubt it would have triggered a war. This was before the ICBM era was in full swing. The DEW line† would not have detected the expected armada of Soviet bombers coming over the pole. There would have been one missing B-52, known to be carrying, and probably one missing airbase (Seymour Johnson AFB, to which they were on approach for an emergency landing). I expect it would have been pretty obvious it was an accident. †http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distant_Early_Warning_Line http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distant_Early_Warning_Line

mpyne 13y ago

The answer is that they had both aircraft-tracking radar and "early warning" radar designed to pick up incoming ICBM re-entry vehicles by that time, so it would have been fairly easy to verify that a single nuclear detonation around a militarily and strategically innocouous site was an accident. But don't let that stop you from panicing.

smtddr 13y ago
Oh they'd know. The real question is would they have told the public it was an internal accident? Or do some wonderful media-spin and blame whatever country they feel like going to war with...
- Dove 13y ago
  No one "felt like" going to war during the Cold War. Avoiding war was the top priority in everyone's mind. And I mean everyone -- leadership, public, on both sides. That's why it was a cold war. If anyone on either side had wanted a hot one, they could have started it easily a dozen times over.
  - coldtea 13y ago
    >No one "felt like" going to war during the Cold War. Avoiding war was the top priority in everyone's mind. And I mean everyone -- leadership, public, on both sides. "Noone" felt like going to war with the big other superpower. As for places of strategic interest, they absolutely LOVED going to war over them, Korea, Vietnam, tons of Latin America, etc etc.
Osiris 13y ago
I would be highly skeptical that the President would have told the American people "Oops, our bad. That was just an accident". It's very likely that the government would have blamed the attack on someone other than the U.S. even with the evidence in their hands that it was an accident. Seriously, can you imagine a U.S. President admitting to the public that the military just 'accidently' killed millions of people?
- dragonwriter 13y ago
  An even bigger threat than "the President goes to war to cover up an accident" is what happens with the chain of escalation when the Soviets notice the detonation and go to high alert in case the US thinks that it was a Soviet attack (since the Soviets are less likely than the Americans to know it was a US bomber accident, and therefore not necessarily confident that the US will not think that it was a successful sneak attack of some kind.)
- jevinskie 13y ago
  So they blame the USSR and say they started a nuclear war? I don't think that would work out better.
- Dove 13y ago
  In 1961, JFK would have been president. During the Cuban Missile Crisis, when an American U-2 was shot down and the pilot killed, he chose not to retaliate. Not to. Just let the Russians shoot down one of ours, and did nothing. He did the right thing, too. It was an already tense situation, and letting it escalate into all out war . . . no one can say where it would stop. Whatever you think of current politicians, JFK was a great man. There's no way, no way at all, he would have started a global hot war out of sheer pride. But beyond that, it was a very different time. The US really was in mortal combat, which is not something this generation has witnessed. "We will find those terrorists" was a popular message on 9/11. "The Russians hit us for real and we have to hit back," during the Cold War, would not have been. It would have sounded like the end of the world. The political temptation would not have been to make an accident look like a real strike, but -- if anything -- to make a real strike look like an accident.
bsullivan01 13y ago
Not necessarily. What if the 'evil empire' had smuggled a small one in US soil?
coldtea 13y ago
>But don't let that stop you from panicing. Yes, because radars at the time were so advanced that nothing could go wrong. They were made by the same guys that lost 2 bombs near a major metropolitan area. Yay for engineering!

Dove 13y ago

We already know the answer. There were several close calls during the Cold War, and while the powers involved always chose to respond (they had to, it was doctrine at the time), they always chose to respond cautiously. Both sides wanted to avoid a "hot" war at almost any cost. For an example of how bad things could get with both sides still responding cautiously, read about Able Archer[1]. A first strike in the cold war was expected to be all out -- many, many missiles at once in an attempt to disable the enemy before he could respond. One explosion, in the middle of nowhere, is not a sensible first strike. I'd think "accident" would be the top hypothesis, even if "What are we dealing with?" was definitely a burning question. There were plenty of times when a much more credible first strike came up. Computer glitches that made it look like dozens of missiles were already in the air. Large exercises that looked legitimately like immediate attacks. Those were scary crises, but they were navigated with caution and skill. A lone explosion in the middle of nowhere wouldn't even rate as a close call, I don't think. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Able_Archer_83 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Able_Archer_83

mtdewcmu 13y ago
Good point. The military should know where their own planes are, too.
- lostlogin 13y ago
  Maybe. Their record for knowing where stuff is isn't that good. The Iraq adventure lost $1billion of stuff. This shouldn't be confused with the overall cost (some would also say loss here) of a few trillion dollars for the whole episode. http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-500257_162-3584247.html http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-500257_162-3584247.html
  - twoodfin 13y ago
    Iraq war estimates in the trillions involve some pretty iffy calculations of long-term effects, like guessing the impact on the price of oil. The actually budgetary cost was much lower.

cynwoody 13y ago

I doubt it would have triggered a war. This was before the ICBM era was in full swing. The DEW line† would not have detected the expected armada of Soviet bombers coming over the pole. There would have been one missing B-52, known to be carrying, and probably one missing airbase (Seymour Johnson AFB, to which they were on approach for an emergency landing). I expect it would have been pretty obvious it was an accident. †http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distant_Early_Warning_Line http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distant_Early_Warning_Line