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The probability of a losing day is actually far lower since most of the trades a bank has on are non-directional and net out.
by sseveran 13y ago
The probability of a losing day is actually far lower since most of the trades a bank has on are non-directional and net out.
- pfortuny 13y agoTurns out (see http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-08/jp-morgan-has-zero-trading-losses-first-quarter http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-08/jp-morgan-has-zero-... above) that it is not that much lower than 0.1. IIRC, obviously.
- sseveran 13y agoYou (and the article) are assuming that all trades are created equal. At 95% accuracy you can easily never have a losing trading day. Plus given the massive amount of derivatives you can "mark to market" when convenient and end up with no losing trading days.