Haha, good catch on the math goof. > without accounting for probabilities, is flawed reasoning. This is the problem. It is rather illogical to believe that on

Haha, good catch on the math goof. > without accounting for probabilities, is flawed reasoning. This is the problem. It is rather illogical to believe that one can come up with an accurate probability of success for a given company given the multitude of variables both known and unknown. For example, AirBnB was thought to be not only bad, but a terrible idea initially yet it is one of the biggest winners in all of the YC batches. What probability of success did investors give it? Think of it from the point of view of an investor who passed up on AirBnB. How much do you think that these probabilities that you come up with mean when you know how bad you are at deciding whether to invest at all.