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11. "The framework I found, which made the decision [to start Amazon in 1994] incredibly easy, was what I called a regret minimization framework. I wanted to pr

11. "The framework I found, which made the decision [to start Amazon in 1994] incredibly easy, was what I called a regret minimization framework. I wanted to project myself forward to age 80 and say, 'OK, I'm looking back on my life. I want to minimize the number of regrets I have.' And I knew that when I was 80, I was not going to regret having tried this. I was not going to regret trying to participate in this thing called the Internet that I thought was going to be a really big deal. I knew that if I failed, I wouldn't regret that. But I knew the one thing I might regret is not ever having tried. I knew that that would haunt me every day." Amen.

scanr 13y ago
Woah. I independently came up with something similar. I used to wonder what kind of advice I'd give myself if I could go back in time. At some point, I realised that I could change it around and project myself forward in time instead and imagine what future me would say to me right now. What the advice lost in accuracy it made up for in actionability.
- networked 13y ago
  Sounds like a way of hacking near/far thinking (http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Near/far_thinking http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Near/far_thinking).
- graeme 13y ago
  Thanks for posting that. I've tried it since I read it, and it made it easier much to make the right decisions all day, with less drain on willpower. We'll see if that keeps up.
- princeb 13y ago
  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regret_(decision_theory) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regret_(decision_theory)
- gbog 13y ago
  Don't want to be pouring cold water here but there are much more important things that should be fine in order to avoid later regrets: traveling in another culture deep enough to really know what is different and what is similar, having kids and spend time with them, etc. Say you get to be the next dropbox founder, good for you, but will that count that much when you will be 80?
ledon 13y ago
Hearing Bezos's regret minimization framework was one of the things that helped to make an easier decision to leave my job to start a company (I left Amazon, ironically). Here is the original video which this quote is taken from: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwG_qR6XmDQ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwG_qR6XmDQ
- boomzilla 13y ago
  One could also argue that Bezos already made up his mind and he just needed to find a line of reasoning that supports his decisions. Well, isn't that how science works, when you do experiments and then come up with theories to support the results?
  - jacquesm 13y ago
    Disproving theories is as big (if not a bigger) part of science as it is to come up with theories that support certain results. After all there could be many such theories but which one is the true one you can only find out by setting up experiments to explicitly make the decision which theories are false and which are not (or at least, less so).
  - ams6110 13y ago
    It's also easy for him to say since he was successful. I know a fair number of people who tried "this thing called the internet" at about the same time and had their asses handed to them a few years later. Most don't actually say they regret it, but more than a few were burned badly enough to not try it again.
    - blackoil 13y ago
      Most People will not regret being involve in 'the thing called the internet', they may regret other decisions like poorly managing cash flow, not understanding marketing or software or people...
hawkharris 13y ago
I love the sentiment that Bezos expressed through this quote, and I sincerely hope to apply his advice to my career. Having said that, this long-term way of thinking about happiness and regrets may conflict with human nature. The vast majority of us are incapable of predicting what will - or will not - make us happy: http://scienceblogs.com/purepedantry/2008/04/22/happiness-prediction-and-an-in/ http://scienceblogs.com/purepedantry/2008/04/22/happiness-pr...
mathattack 13y ago
That's a great quote. I like this one: 6. "I very frequently get the question: 'What's going to change in the next 10 years?' And that is a very interesting question; it's a very common one. I almost never get the question: 'What's not going to change in the next 10 years?' And I submit to you that that second question is actually the more important of the two -- because you can build a business strategy around the things that are stable in time. ... [I]n our retail business, we know that customers want low prices, and I know that's going to be true 10 years from now. They want fast delivery; they want vast selection. It's impossible to imagine a future 10 years from now where a customer comes up and says, 'Jeff I love Amazon; I just wish the prices were a little higher,' [or] 'I love Amazon; I just wish you'd deliver a little more slowly.' Impossible. And so the effort we put into those things, spinning those things up, we know the energy we put into it today will still be paying off dividends for our customers 10 years from now. When you have something that you know is true, even over the long term, you can afford to put a lot of energy into it." I enjoy the irony of getting his wisdom at a site called Fool.com.
- thwarted 13y ago
  I enjoy the irony of getting his wisdom at a site called Fool.com. From http://www.fool.com/legal/the-motley-fool-disclaimer.aspx http://www.fool.com/legal/the-motley-fool-disclaimer.aspx Our name derives from Elizabethan drama, where only the court jester (the "Fool") could tell the King the truth without getting his head lopped off. We're dedicated to educating, amusing, and enriching individuals in search of the truth.
russgray 13y ago
This whole 'deathbed' theory has always seemed entirely bunk to me. At 35, my values and thought processes are almost entirely different to what I /thought/ they would be when I was 20, and so any decisions I'd made at 20 to please the 35-year-old 'me' would almost certainly have missed the mark. The idea that at 35 I can predict what will or won't please my 80-year-old self is preposterous. The best thing I can do for that guy is make sure he has the resources available to do what makes him happy.

scanr 13y ago

Woah. I independently came up with something similar. I used to wonder what kind of advice I'd give myself if I could go back in time. At some point, I realised that I could change it around and project myself forward in time instead and imagine what future me would say to me right now. What the advice lost in accuracy it made up for in actionability.

networked 13y ago
Sounds like a way of hacking near/far thinking (http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Near/far_thinking http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Near/far_thinking).
graeme 13y ago
Thanks for posting that. I've tried it since I read it, and it made it easier much to make the right decisions all day, with less drain on willpower. We'll see if that keeps up.
princeb 13y ago
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regret_(decision_theory) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regret_(decision_theory)
gbog 13y ago
Don't want to be pouring cold water here but there are much more important things that should be fine in order to avoid later regrets: traveling in another culture deep enough to really know what is different and what is similar, having kids and spend time with them, etc. Say you get to be the next dropbox founder, good for you, but will that count that much when you will be 80?

ledon 13y ago

Hearing Bezos's regret minimization framework was one of the things that helped to make an easier decision to leave my job to start a company (I left Amazon, ironically). Here is the original video which this quote is taken from: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwG_qR6XmDQ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwG_qR6XmDQ

boomzilla 13y ago
One could also argue that Bezos already made up his mind and he just needed to find a line of reasoning that supports his decisions. Well, isn't that how science works, when you do experiments and then come up with theories to support the results?
- jacquesm 13y ago
  Disproving theories is as big (if not a bigger) part of science as it is to come up with theories that support certain results. After all there could be many such theories but which one is the true one you can only find out by setting up experiments to explicitly make the decision which theories are false and which are not (or at least, less so).
- ams6110 13y ago
  It's also easy for him to say since he was successful. I know a fair number of people who tried "this thing called the internet" at about the same time and had their asses handed to them a few years later. Most don't actually say they regret it, but more than a few were burned badly enough to not try it again.
  - blackoil 13y ago
    Most People will not regret being involve in 'the thing called the internet', they may regret other decisions like poorly managing cash flow, not understanding marketing or software or people...

hawkharris 13y ago

I love the sentiment that Bezos expressed through this quote, and I sincerely hope to apply his advice to my career. Having said that, this long-term way of thinking about happiness and regrets may conflict with human nature. The vast majority of us are incapable of predicting what will - or will not - make us happy: http://scienceblogs.com/purepedantry/2008/04/22/happiness-prediction-and-an-in/ http://scienceblogs.com/purepedantry/2008/04/22/happiness-pr...

mathattack 13y ago

That's a great quote. I like this one: 6. "I very frequently get the question: 'What's going to change in the next 10 years?' And that is a very interesting question; it's a very common one. I almost never get the question: 'What's not going to change in the next 10 years?' And I submit to you that that second question is actually the more important of the two -- because you can build a business strategy around the things that are stable in time. ... [I]n our retail business, we know that customers want low prices, and I know that's going to be true 10 years from now. They want fast delivery; they want vast selection. It's impossible to imagine a future 10 years from now where a customer comes up and says, 'Jeff I love Amazon; I just wish the prices were a little higher,' [or] 'I love Amazon; I just wish you'd deliver a little more slowly.' Impossible. And so the effort we put into those things, spinning those things up, we know the energy we put into it today will still be paying off dividends for our customers 10 years from now. When you have something that you know is true, even over the long term, you can afford to put a lot of energy into it." I enjoy the irony of getting his wisdom at a site called Fool.com.

thwarted 13y ago
I enjoy the irony of getting his wisdom at a site called Fool.com. From http://www.fool.com/legal/the-motley-fool-disclaimer.aspx http://www.fool.com/legal/the-motley-fool-disclaimer.aspx Our name derives from Elizabethan drama, where only the court jester (the "Fool") could tell the King the truth without getting his head lopped off. We're dedicated to educating, amusing, and enriching individuals in search of the truth.

russgray 13y ago

This whole 'deathbed' theory has always seemed entirely bunk to me. At 35, my values and thought processes are almost entirely different to what I /thought/ they would be when I was 20, and so any decisions I'd made at 20 to please the 35-year-old 'me' would almost certainly have missed the mark. The idea that at 35 I can predict what will or won't please my 80-year-old self is preposterous. The best thing I can do for that guy is make sure he has the resources available to do what makes him happy.