4 ms·

> But it's conceivable that SF basically becomes the Mahattan of the Bay Area, a playground for the rich, while everyone else gets pushed into the outlying boro

> But it's conceivable that SF basically becomes the Mahattan of the Bay Area, a playground for the rich, while everyone else gets pushed into the outlying boroughs and beyond. In such a scenario, where money is little object to the buyers determined to own in SF, what happens to pricing? I lived in Manhattan and in SF now and I would say, yah, I can see that. Already though, the 'boroughs' are being pushed further out. Buying in SF is an all cash over asking price deal (I've heard over 25%). My wife and I have been looking around the east bay and north bay and while those prices are a little more down to earth, the same thing is going on there as well - cash. Maybe it's not so over the asking price, but those that can't buy here in the city, don't want to ruin their chances buying elsewhere, so cash is still king. It's pretty crazy; I saw a house by us in the Upper Market around - a 2br 1ba, 900 sqft - go for over $1.2m (I pass this place as I walk to muni every day). That was a month or so ago. Last week walked by it, there was a for rent sign. Looked the place up, $5800/mo rent. Ridic. Yesterday, the rent sign was gone. I was like, wow.. Ok.. I felt like our trade up in our building from a $1500 1br apt to a $2200 2br apt was a little crazy. But I'm sure our place now would rent for $3k easy. Needless to say, we're staying put for a bit, still continuing to save. I think the big thing on the psychology here is the fact that so many people can swoop in with a lot of cash over ask. You really do realize it's a rich people's city - to own. My wife and I have a small toddler with another kid on the way and couple the current climate with how crappy the public schools are here and it's only a matter of time before we hit the eject button. Add to that the homeless problem that never seems to get any better (I've lived here on and off for 20 years and it seems like its only gotten worse) and you have the makings of a city where families don't live (more dogs than kids here). We still love the city and we'd never ever thought we'd say we're lookin to the suburbs. But now, we are. Who knows if this will change over the next few years.

jonnathanson 13y ago
"I think the big thing on the psychology here is the fact that so many people can swoop in with a lot of cash over ask." Yeah, above certain pricing tiers ($1M+ listings), the city seems to be catering to the young and monied without family concerns. I saw a 1BR / 1 BA in mid-Market listed at $1.39M a few months ago. I thought to myself, how much higher could that ever really go? It's a freaking 1 bedroom. Sure enough, it sold at over-asking, all cash, to what a realtor friend of mine assured me was a twentysomething buyer. Probably Facebook money. On a semi-related note, these days it seems as if developers are making a serious attempt to gentrify the Tenderloin. Lots of new luxury boutique buildings going up or being converted there. There's a $5M+ penthouse in the heart of the 'Loin for sale right now. And I guess it makes sense, in a way. Provided gentrification can push all the homeless out of the area, it's really centrally located and convenient for people who work in the financial district or general Market / Union Square area. To your point, though: where do all the homeless people go? They seem to be getting pushed further and further south, especially now that SOMA (South Beach in particular) is the most expensive neighborhood in the city. And if the 'Loin turns posh, what the f- happens to all of them there?
snide 13y ago
I know this is going to sound nuts to you, but if you're a tech worker that can do a day a week at home you really should check out north of San Rafael. Last year I bought a house in Petaluma that was way beyond what I thought I could own. More important to me is that the schools and community are great. 3 parks and a historic downtown all within walking distance. I feel like I live in a town from the 1950s. Granted, I knew I'd be working more and more at home, but for the first year I road a 1 hour commuter bus (with wifi!) that picked me up a block from my house and dropped me a block from my Soma office. East Bay has BART, but don't discount the other public transportation options that do just as well.
- efnx 13y ago
  Petaluma is an awesome place and it has a fair share of tech culture. Bias, TwitVid and a number of agencies are all westside downtown locals. Housing on the westside is getting more competitive though. Nothing like SF I'm sure but difficult to get into unless you make 150k+. Petaluma has that nice old-world vibe because it sits on a slab of granite. During the big earthquakes of the past century the neighboring cities' buildings collapsed but that slab of granite provided a buffer for Petaluma, keeping its turn of the century downtown. It also ended up being the default relief center during those disasters :) Way to go, slab.
malyk 13y ago
Prices in the east bay are still way over asking and there is a lot of cash. My wife and I paid $75k over asking for our 1300ft2, 1 bed, 1 bath house in north oakland just shy of a year ago. We bid on 6 houses total and every one of those was in the same ballpark over ask. I'm not sure what it's like over the hills, but in north oakland and berkeley you'll still have to pay over asking and compete against 5-10 other bids.
- pc86 13y ago
  I see this and it blows my mind, coming from a low-income family growing up and a low-COL but mid-to-high-income household now. I've never heard of anyone even paying asking price, let alone above it (and having the seller pay most or all of closing costs is a non-starter around here). We only paid $113k for our 3br 2.5ba home (list $139k) with the seller chipping in $7k or so seller's help and although it wasn't the case when we bought it a few years ago, we make more in a year than the house is worth. This is tempered by the fact that the medium HHI of our zip-code is in the high 30k's and we've got the amenities to match, but we're in a suburban area outside of small city/large town (200k or so during the week?) and with me being a developer my income isn't necessarily tied to a specific geographic area.
  - jonnathanson 13y ago
    "I've never heard of anyone even paying asking price, let alone above it..." For what it's worth, paying above asking is a pretty bizarre concept to me as well, and I lived most of my life in LA (LA LA, not an outlying area) before moving up to SF. Having owned and sold a home in LA, I would have been smoking crack to believe I'd get my asking price, let alone exceed the asking. And there was no shortage of crazy money floating around that town. But here in SF, asking is basically the floor, not the ceiling. This is probably because of supply & demand. SF has much more constrained inventory and less liquidity in that inventory -- so you get things like bidding wars, and multiple offers on listings are the rule and not the exception. I have seen people get carried away with their pricing here, and the market usually punishes those people until they lower their asking prices. But for condos or houses priced "appropriately" relative to their comps, asking is almost assured, and above-asking is far from uncommon.
efnx 13y ago
> Add to that the homeless problem that never seems to get any better... I was amazed when I learned that Orange County busses its homeless to SF. I often wonder how many other affluent areas sweep their troubled people under their neighbor's rug?
- bmelton 13y ago
  Hawaii will actually spring for a one-way flight to the continental US to reduce (relocate) their homeless population.
- mikeyouse 13y ago
  You may have already seen, but add Reno and Las Vegas to the mix: http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_23087181/san-francisco-probes-dumping-psychiatric-patients-from-nevada http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_23087181/san-francisco-probes-... http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/SF-City-Attorney-Looks-into-Allegations-of-Patient-Dumping-204226291.html http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/SF-City-Attorney-Loo...

jonnathanson 13y ago

"I think the big thing on the psychology here is the fact that so many people can swoop in with a lot of cash over ask." Yeah, above certain pricing tiers ($1M+ listings), the city seems to be catering to the young and monied without family concerns. I saw a 1BR / 1 BA in mid-Market listed at $1.39M a few months ago. I thought to myself, how much higher could that ever really go? It's a freaking 1 bedroom. Sure enough, it sold at over-asking, all cash, to what a realtor friend of mine assured me was a twentysomething buyer. Probably Facebook money. On a semi-related note, these days it seems as if developers are making a serious attempt to gentrify the Tenderloin. Lots of new luxury boutique buildings going up or being converted there. There's a $5M+ penthouse in the heart of the 'Loin for sale right now. And I guess it makes sense, in a way. Provided gentrification can push all the homeless out of the area, it's really centrally located and convenient for people who work in the financial district or general Market / Union Square area. To your point, though: where do all the homeless people go? They seem to be getting pushed further and further south, especially now that SOMA (South Beach in particular) is the most expensive neighborhood in the city. And if the 'Loin turns posh, what the f- happens to all of them there?

snide 13y ago

I know this is going to sound nuts to you, but if you're a tech worker that can do a day a week at home you really should check out north of San Rafael. Last year I bought a house in Petaluma that was way beyond what I thought I could own. More important to me is that the schools and community are great. 3 parks and a historic downtown all within walking distance. I feel like I live in a town from the 1950s. Granted, I knew I'd be working more and more at home, but for the first year I road a 1 hour commuter bus (with wifi!) that picked me up a block from my house and dropped me a block from my Soma office. East Bay has BART, but don't discount the other public transportation options that do just as well.

efnx 13y ago
Petaluma is an awesome place and it has a fair share of tech culture. Bias, TwitVid and a number of agencies are all westside downtown locals. Housing on the westside is getting more competitive though. Nothing like SF I'm sure but difficult to get into unless you make 150k+. Petaluma has that nice old-world vibe because it sits on a slab of granite. During the big earthquakes of the past century the neighboring cities' buildings collapsed but that slab of granite provided a buffer for Petaluma, keeping its turn of the century downtown. It also ended up being the default relief center during those disasters :) Way to go, slab.

malyk 13y ago

Prices in the east bay are still way over asking and there is a lot of cash. My wife and I paid $75k over asking for our 1300ft2, 1 bed, 1 bath house in north oakland just shy of a year ago. We bid on 6 houses total and every one of those was in the same ballpark over ask. I'm not sure what it's like over the hills, but in north oakland and berkeley you'll still have to pay over asking and compete against 5-10 other bids.

pc86 13y ago
I see this and it blows my mind, coming from a low-income family growing up and a low-COL but mid-to-high-income household now. I've never heard of anyone even paying asking price, let alone above it (and having the seller pay most or all of closing costs is a non-starter around here). We only paid $113k for our 3br 2.5ba home (list $139k) with the seller chipping in $7k or so seller's help and although it wasn't the case when we bought it a few years ago, we make more in a year than the house is worth. This is tempered by the fact that the medium HHI of our zip-code is in the high 30k's and we've got the amenities to match, but we're in a suburban area outside of small city/large town (200k or so during the week?) and with me being a developer my income isn't necessarily tied to a specific geographic area.
- jonnathanson 13y ago
  "I've never heard of anyone even paying asking price, let alone above it..." For what it's worth, paying above asking is a pretty bizarre concept to me as well, and I lived most of my life in LA (LA LA, not an outlying area) before moving up to SF. Having owned and sold a home in LA, I would have been smoking crack to believe I'd get my asking price, let alone exceed the asking. And there was no shortage of crazy money floating around that town. But here in SF, asking is basically the floor, not the ceiling. This is probably because of supply & demand. SF has much more constrained inventory and less liquidity in that inventory -- so you get things like bidding wars, and multiple offers on listings are the rule and not the exception. I have seen people get carried away with their pricing here, and the market usually punishes those people until they lower their asking prices. But for condos or houses priced "appropriately" relative to their comps, asking is almost assured, and above-asking is far from uncommon.

efnx 13y ago

> Add to that the homeless problem that never seems to get any better... I was amazed when I learned that Orange County busses its homeless to SF. I often wonder how many other affluent areas sweep their troubled people under their neighbor's rug?

bmelton 13y ago
Hawaii will actually spring for a one-way flight to the continental US to reduce (relocate) their homeless population.
mikeyouse 13y ago
You may have already seen, but add Reno and Las Vegas to the mix: http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_23087181/san-francisco-probes-dumping-psychiatric-patients-from-nevada http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_23087181/san-francisco-probes-... http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/SF-City-Attorney-Looks-into-Allegations-of-Patient-Dumping-204226291.html http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/SF-City-Attorney-Loo...