3 ms·

> It's simple probability. No it's not. It's hype, buyout rumors, etc. The stock price will fall hard.

by buckbova 13y ago

deelowe 13y ago
If you're so confident, why not short it?
- lutusp 13y ago
  > If you're so confident, why not short it? What? He should tell you his investment strategy? These things are secret for a reason. As William Goldman famously said, no one knows anything. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adventures_in_the_Screen_Trade http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adventures_in_the_Screen_Trade
  - deelowe 13y ago
    My point isn't that he should share anything. It's that the market has options for both sides. If one thinks he is a savant and that everyone else is idiots, he should do the opposite strategy. As soon as he started doing that, he'd learn a little about how this sort of thing works. See, the rub is that Pandora shouldn't be evaluated as a single stock, but as part of a broader portfolio. Only amateurs scrutinize individual stocks in this way. As an example, one strategy might be that the investor has determined that internet radio will eventually take off and kill traditional radio. So, as part of a broader investment strategy, you move your money out of traditional radio and into a diversified pool of internet radio business(pandora is just one). If everyone else starts doing this, the stock goes up. It doesn't matter what pandora is doing individually.
    - lutusp 13y ago
      > If one thinks he is a savant and that everyone else is idiots, he should do the opposite strategy. Yes, fair enough. You've suggested what's called the contrarian strategy -- find out what people are doing and do the opposite. Sometimes effective, sometimes not. But the real players (and the people I can't stand) are those who take some kind of position in a stock, then either tout or disparage a company or stock without revealing that only they stand to benefit from the advice they're giving out, and the audience only stands to lose by following it. That's what makes me crazy about most people who offer stock or investment advice -- they're not usually obliged to reveal any conflict of interest that may exist. > Only amateurs scrutinize individual stocks in this way. Very true. My only advice is meta-advice -- invest in an index fund, not individual stocks, then sit on your investment. In other words, don't play the market at all, just ride the long-term pattern of equities growth. Avoid thinking you can outsmart all the day traders and insiders. More here: http://arachnoid.com/equities_myths http://arachnoid.com/equities_myths
lutusp 13y ago
>> It's simple probability. > No it's not. Of course it is. > It's hype, buyout rumors, etc. And that isn't probability? > The stock price will fall hard. That's how reverse pump and dump works -- short a stock, then bad-mouth it to exploit the ignorance of the average investor. Their money ends up in your pocket.

> It's simple probability. No it's not. It's hype, buyout rumors, etc. The stock price will fall hard.

deelowe 13y ago

If you're so confident, why not short it?

lutusp 13y ago
> If you're so confident, why not short it? What? He should tell you his investment strategy? These things are secret for a reason. As William Goldman famously said, no one knows anything. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adventures_in_the_Screen_Trade http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adventures_in_the_Screen_Trade
- deelowe 13y ago
  My point isn't that he should share anything. It's that the market has options for both sides. If one thinks he is a savant and that everyone else is idiots, he should do the opposite strategy. As soon as he started doing that, he'd learn a little about how this sort of thing works. See, the rub is that Pandora shouldn't be evaluated as a single stock, but as part of a broader portfolio. Only amateurs scrutinize individual stocks in this way. As an example, one strategy might be that the investor has determined that internet radio will eventually take off and kill traditional radio. So, as part of a broader investment strategy, you move your money out of traditional radio and into a diversified pool of internet radio business(pandora is just one). If everyone else starts doing this, the stock goes up. It doesn't matter what pandora is doing individually.
  - lutusp 13y ago
    > If one thinks he is a savant and that everyone else is idiots, he should do the opposite strategy. Yes, fair enough. You've suggested what's called the contrarian strategy -- find out what people are doing and do the opposite. Sometimes effective, sometimes not. But the real players (and the people I can't stand) are those who take some kind of position in a stock, then either tout or disparage a company or stock without revealing that only they stand to benefit from the advice they're giving out, and the audience only stands to lose by following it. That's what makes me crazy about most people who offer stock or investment advice -- they're not usually obliged to reveal any conflict of interest that may exist. > Only amateurs scrutinize individual stocks in this way. Very true. My only advice is meta-advice -- invest in an index fund, not individual stocks, then sit on your investment. In other words, don't play the market at all, just ride the long-term pattern of equities growth. Avoid thinking you can outsmart all the day traders and insiders. More here: http://arachnoid.com/equities_myths http://arachnoid.com/equities_myths

lutusp 13y ago

>> It's simple probability. > No it's not. Of course it is. > It's hype, buyout rumors, etc. And that isn't probability? > The stock price will fall hard. That's how reverse pump and dump works -- short a stock, then bad-mouth it to exploit the ignorance of the average investor. Their money ends up in your pocket.