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>1,2,3 Yup, except why do the developers not get the income? Presumably they are selling the machines? >4 Yes. The key with this kind of logic is to relate i
by nyan_sandwich 13y ago
>1,2,3
Yup, except why do the developers not get the income? Presumably they are selling the machines?
>4
Yes. The key with this kind of logic is to relate it to the current situation, though; people with more workers can afford even more workers. Why doesn't it all blow up now?
There is more to success than simply scale of manufacturing capability; firms need to keep ahead of competitors, keep up with technology, manage the whole stack, etc, and then they can end up controlling the whole market (at the thing they do) and having nowhere else to go because the firms in other fields have an advantage that takes something special to beat.
Also, the neat thing about capitalism is that money to buy more work is rarely the bottleneck, because you can get a capitalist to invest in your scheme (if it looks any good).
>5
The second thing (poor get poorer) does not necessarily follow. Only the people who can't do anything that machines can't do better get poor. The working poor have more buying power because the machines create more wealth for less money.
In practice, despite a lot of automation, we don't have many people unable to do anything productive; people are very much more versatile than machines (for now).
More on that: http://lesswrong.com/lw/hh4/the_robots_ai_and_unemployment_antifaq/ http://lesswrong.com/lw/hh4/the_robots_ai_and_unemployment_a...
>In the future (my crazy thoughts):
Yes, eventually the set of people who cannot do something that machines can't do better includes everyone, and everyone becomes unemployed. (Which looks pretty good, IMO; who likes working?). There are more serious problems than unemployment at this point, though.
At this point, why do you expect the machines to still be under the control of the capitalists? If the machines can do capitalism, etc better than capitalists, any wealth that ends up in the hands of an autonomous machine will eventually increase to eclipse the human capitalists as well. (And of course, meanwhile the machines are increasing in effectiveness because they are better at machine design as well).
This is called the "intelligence explosion" or "technological singularity" scenario, depending who you ask, and looks like bad news, unless we do some serious stuff to make sure the machines work to specifically benefit humanity instead of just continuing to find better and better ways to do whatever other task they were doing. (Better ways that eventually include overpowering humans militarily and melting us down for raw material).
If you want more info: http://intelligenceexplosion.com/ http://intelligenceexplosion.com/
- _lex 13y agoDevelopers will benefit from some of the income, but won't get it all. This is because their initial benefit will draw more people into software development, which, if not coincided by an increase in demand for software engineers, will lower wages since it'll increase competition for jobs. The poor will get poorer b/c they will have neither capital (money/development machines) and because eventually the rate of cannibalization of industries will increase over time. Software's eating the world, and that process is accelerating. Machines alone won't be worth much more than the sum of their parts because they are mass produced and largely interchangeable, so there's a ton of competition in the market. They will still be under the control/ownership of capitalists because they won't be persons - everything that isn't a person technically has an owner. When machines do cross the barrier of deserving rights, we should reconvene and have this discussion again.
- nyan_sandwich 13y ago>They will still be under the control/ownership of capitalists because they won't be persons - everything that isn't a person technically has an owner. >When machines do cross the barrier of deserving rights, we should reconvene and have this discussion again. You are assuming the rule of law holds through all of this. If an autonomous machine intelligence is capable of becoming militarily sovereign (in the sense that it becomes nontrivial to simply "arrest" or otherwise overpower), it matters little whether the rest of us think it has rights, or who nominally "owns" it. If that machine is also able to outcompete human capitalists at wealth accumulation (assuming market holds) or human generals at military power (assuming nothing)... And let's face it, it's not that hard for even lone smart humans to be militarily untouchable. Think cybercriminals: If today we decided that cybercriminals weren't people and were owned by the government, would the they care? No; they are sovereign through anonymity, and their legal status is not an impediment to their work. Likewise with autonomous machine intelligence.