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There is a way to get a perfect estimate - and that is to build it and see how long it takes. Everything else is using an abridged model is short-cut the proce
by jwilliams 13y ago
There is a way to get a perfect estimate - and that is to build it and see how long it takes.
Everything else is using an abridged model is short-cut the process. However, I think this is an important point. Estimating is somewhat akin to actually building the end-product.
The reason I find this important is that the most common spiral of death I see is re-estimation. You take on something unrealistic, plough on regardless, realise too late, then you re-estimate. The re-estimation causes a project stall and takes time. The end result being you have less time.. Few months later you're in the same boat again (repeat).. Big organisations are really prone to this.
- jacques_chester 13y ago> There is a way to get a perfect estimate - and that is to build it and see how long it takes. The concept of a "perfect estimate" is tautological, isn't it? Estimates are by their definition uncertain statements.
- wpietri 13y agoI believe that's his point.
- jacques_chester 13y agoThen the larger point is that if estimates are always imperfect, we need to stop obsessing about their always being imperfect.
- jwilliams 13y agoYeah, more or less :) I think admitting/deciding upfront what you want to be imperfect is a good start.