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I've always found this article -- "Evidence Based Scheduling" -- by Joel Spolsky to be rather compelling: http://www.joelonsoftware.com/items/2007/10/26.html h

• jacques_chester 13y ago
  As part of my research on estimations I've been working through Edward Merrow's book Industrial Megaprojects. It's based in part on a large database of megaprojects that his firm consulted on. He considers Monte Carlo-based methods to at best pointless, at worst harmful to outcomes (p 324): The average megaproject cost estimate when Monte Carlo simulation was used overran by 21 percent, with a standard deviation of 26 percent and with a sharp right skew. When Monte Carlo simulation was not used, teams were actually more sensitive to basic risks as they set contingency. ... The use of Monte Carlo simulation has no relationship to success of megaprojects or any of our other five figures of merit of projects: cost growth, cost competitiveness, schedule slippage, schedule competitiveness or production attainment.