IIRC, 1 & 3 are usually the same, and 2 is usually still way too optimistic. And that's from research, not anecdote. It still might be useful. Use 1 to ancho

IIRC, 1 & 3 are usually the same, and 2 is usually still way too optimistic. And that's from research, not anecdote. It still might be useful. Use 1 to anchor 3 to anchor 2 and then triple it. See also: http://lesswrong.com/lw/jg/planning_fallacy/ http://lesswrong.com/lw/jg/planning_fallacy/