7 ms·
This is the most purblind, misguided editorial opinion I have read in weeks. It repeats an old saw often repeated by people who don't understand the Logistic fu
by lutusp 13y ago
This is the most purblind, misguided editorial opinion I have read in weeks. It repeats an old saw often repeated by people who don't understand the Logistic function and its role is describing biological systems:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function
The Logistic function concisely describes the behavior of biological systems that don't have any control over their numbers, as humans most certainly do not.
At the left, the function's curve is nearly flat because there aren't enough living organisms to support a higher birth rate.
At the right, the functions's curve is nearly flat because mass starvation and death prevents a higher birth rate.
The Logistic function models a growing biological colony in a finite world, and it applies to any biological colony. For such a biological colony, eventually mass birth is balanced by mass death.
Does this model have any bearing on the human biological colony? Let me answer by saying as time passes, more and more accounts of mass death are met by less and less surprise or alarm among the world's population.
At Sandy Hook, a boy has a fight with his mother, so -- being a healthy young boy, possessed of normal instincts -- he kills her, then goes to a local school and kills as many people as he can possibly manage. The story makes national headlines for a few days, all those innocent children systematically killed by an amateur, acting on a whim. But that story evaporates, pushed out the public's consciousness by another story of mass death, and another.
By contrast, when the Lindbergh baby was kidnapped in March 1932, it made national headlines for years -- years -- until the perpetrator was apprehended, tried, and executed in 1936. It's the story of one family, one child, one murder. Today that story wouldn't be able to compete with the latest mass murder account. "Oh, Bashar Assad has killed 1,500 people in a nerve gas attack. Oh, well, they're not anyone I know personally. What else is in the news?"
The author of the linked editorial concludes his article by saying, "The only limits to creating a planet that future generations will be proud of are our imaginations and our social systems. In moving toward a better Anthropocene, the environment will be what we make it."
Both claims are likely, but with one important difference -- future populations will wonder what we were thinking, as we struggled to avoid considering the consequences of our own actions. As to "the environment will be what we make it", that is certainly true -- we will gradually tolerate more and more mass death, a process that has already begun.
At the next Sandy Hook mass killing, people will say, "Hey, what can you do? Boys will be boys. But this can't be allowed to stand in the way of progress."
- bayesianhorse 13y agoThe logistic model especially assumes that the carrying capacity is constant. Which it's not, for humanity.
- wildtype 13y agoCarying capacity for human increase, while decreasing carying capacity for other species.
- IsThisObvious 13y agoSome other species: things like raccoons, crows, cows, pigeons, rats, mice, dogs, house cats, etc are all likely to thrive.
- pyre 13y agoDepends on what you mean by "thrive." Many of them will "thrive" in conditions that it would be illegal to put a human into. I'm not sure if I call that "thriving."
- IsThisObvious 13y agoMany humans "thrive" in conditions that are illegal to put humans in to. I don't really see your point, since it doesn't even remotely talk about the relative rates of the two populations or compare what would happen with humans to what would happen without for any of the species. It seems to be contentless objection to what I said, despite the fact that humans are known to greatly increase the prevalence of all of those species, many of which seem to be getting by just fine for many of their members.
- lutusp 13y ago> ... the fact that humans are known to greatly increase the prevalence of all of those species ... Not only is that not a fact, but the opposite is the truth. Humans are wiping out other species at an incredible rate. http://www.bioone.org/doi/abs/10.1525/abt.2011.73.2.5 http://www.bioone.org/doi/abs/10.1525/abt.2011.73.2.5 Quote: "There have been five past great mass extinctions during the history of Earth. There is an ever-growing consensus within the scientific community that we have entered a sixth mass extinction. Human activities are associated directly or indirectly with nearly every aspect of this extinction."