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"It's warming" is not falsifiable because any immediate developments can always be written off. An actual scientific statement is on the lines of "using methodo
by zeteo 13y ago
"It's warming" is not falsifiable because any immediate developments can always be written off. An actual scientific statement is on the lines of "using methodology X, the recorded temperature next year will be between Y and Z". The climate models were scientific in this respect, but they did not predict events accurately. So the scientific certainty is simply not there, and it's all down to subjective interpretation on both sides.
- graeme 13y agoHmm, perhaps it isn't falsifiable by that standard. Only the evidence used in support is falsifiable, but the theory itself couldn't be falsified. How could you falsify the idea "things will continue to be fine"? I'm trying to assess if falsification is a good standard to use.
- zeteo 13y agohttp://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Null_hypothesis http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Null_hypothesis Sorry, a bit in a rush but that's the main idea. Expecting no specific change is the scientific default.
- msellout 13y agoThat may be the default of a t-test. Have you considered a Bayesian analysis?