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I think the main threat to the advancement of self-driving cars was always going to be big companies without a product using lobbyists and regulatory capture to

I think the main threat to the advancement of self-driving cars was always going to be big companies without a product using lobbyists and regulatory capture to hamstring those with a product. So an announcement like this from a big player is a very good thing and will accelerate the product plans of the others too.

zizee 13y ago
Absolutely, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the big car manufacturers pursue both avenues. Fully automated cars will decimate consumer demand for vehicles as people find it much more practical to share vehicles when they don't have to stay in the same place when you are not using them.
- arethuza 13y ago
  I don't think consumers are quite that rational - a lot of people I know, myself included, would be far better of financially by using taxis and hiring a car on the occasions when we need to drive a longer distance. However, for that extra wee bit of convenience (and no doubt other purely emotional factors) we all buy our own cars....
  - justincormack 13y ago
    But that may not end up like that in say China which is forecast to buy much of the world cars.
  - rubinelli 13y ago
    Yeah, there are several studies showing we tend to over-buy, taking into consideration infrequent or even outright imaginary needs.
  - zizee 13y ago
    Renting a car is inconvenient because you have to go somewhere and pick it up and fill in forms, try to rip you off with insurance and petrol charges. Taxi's are inconvenient as they can take a long time to arrive and are relatively expensive for the time you are using them. They don't always turn up when you request them because the human drivers have motivations of their own. Added to this is some people don't love interacting with the drivers. These factors are not a "wee bit" of an inconvenience. They are a pain in the ass. Driverless cars will solve a lot of these issues. They will arrive more reliably, they will be far cheaper, they don't have a driver that makes you feel uncomfortable if you don't want to talk. They will be ordered with a few clicks of your smart phone. Sure, some people will want to continue to own a car. But a large percentage will opt for the the convenience of getting "short term rentals", especially in big city's where parking is at a premium. How large a percentage? I guess that is the point of contention. I think it will be larger than you think. Personally, I can't wait to get rid of my car: http://jamespmcgrath.com/why-i-am-not-buying-an-autonomous-car/ http://jamespmcgrath.com/why-i-am-not-buying-an-autonomous-c...
    - arethuza 13y ago
      Where I am the taxi service is about as good as it could be (iPhone app or IVR, payment through Chip-N-Pin or account) - similarly I went for a while renting cars and the would come and drop the car off at my office and pick it up again from there. I still ended up buying my own car.
      - zizee 13y ago
        2 things. 1. You do not represent everybody. 2. Even the best current systems are not representative of what automated cars will bring. What you are talking about are still way more expensive than the automated solution will be (I have to make some assumptions) and organising someone to drop the car off at a specific time is not the same as being able to make the decision 5 minutes before you need it. At the end of the day, even if I am half right, car production will see a huge drop.

zizee 13y ago

Absolutely, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the big car manufacturers pursue both avenues. Fully automated cars will decimate consumer demand for vehicles as people find it much more practical to share vehicles when they don't have to stay in the same place when you are not using them.

arethuza 13y ago
I don't think consumers are quite that rational - a lot of people I know, myself included, would be far better of financially by using taxis and hiring a car on the occasions when we need to drive a longer distance. However, for that extra wee bit of convenience (and no doubt other purely emotional factors) we all buy our own cars....
- justincormack 13y ago
  But that may not end up like that in say China which is forecast to buy much of the world cars.
- rubinelli 13y ago
  Yeah, there are several studies showing we tend to over-buy, taking into consideration infrequent or even outright imaginary needs.
- zizee 13y ago
  Renting a car is inconvenient because you have to go somewhere and pick it up and fill in forms, try to rip you off with insurance and petrol charges. Taxi's are inconvenient as they can take a long time to arrive and are relatively expensive for the time you are using them. They don't always turn up when you request them because the human drivers have motivations of their own. Added to this is some people don't love interacting with the drivers. These factors are not a "wee bit" of an inconvenience. They are a pain in the ass. Driverless cars will solve a lot of these issues. They will arrive more reliably, they will be far cheaper, they don't have a driver that makes you feel uncomfortable if you don't want to talk. They will be ordered with a few clicks of your smart phone. Sure, some people will want to continue to own a car. But a large percentage will opt for the the convenience of getting "short term rentals", especially in big city's where parking is at a premium. How large a percentage? I guess that is the point of contention. I think it will be larger than you think. Personally, I can't wait to get rid of my car: http://jamespmcgrath.com/why-i-am-not-buying-an-autonomous-car/ http://jamespmcgrath.com/why-i-am-not-buying-an-autonomous-c...
  - arethuza 13y ago
    Where I am the taxi service is about as good as it could be (iPhone app or IVR, payment through Chip-N-Pin or account) - similarly I went for a while renting cars and the would come and drop the car off at my office and pick it up again from there. I still ended up buying my own car.
    - zizee 13y ago
      2 things. 1. You do not represent everybody. 2. Even the best current systems are not representative of what automated cars will bring. What you are talking about are still way more expensive than the automated solution will be (I have to make some assumptions) and organising someone to drop the car off at a specific time is not the same as being able to make the decision 5 minutes before you need it. At the end of the day, even if I am half right, car production will see a huge drop.