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I read the screems and screens of text trying to disconnect climate and weather: that's where I gave up. I had had enough of the cutesy anecodotes and attackin
by brc 17y ago
I read the screems and screens of text trying to disconnect climate and weather: that's where I gave up. I had had enough of the cutesy anecodotes and attacking straw men with straw men.
It's a nice anecdotal attempt to disconnect climate and weather. but it falls very flat. Candle flame eddies, swirling winds? What bunkum. Weather is what you get? So what we get in 50 years, as predicted by climate forecasts, won't be weather?
The reason people argue that climate predictions are weak because of the inability of massive amounts of computing power and continually revised models still fail to predict short term temperature and conditions. This is with a lot of known inputs. And yet, we are all supposed to believe the outputs of a 100 year climate prediction, when the amount of assumed/fudged/unknown variables is simply immense? This is the core reason people (including myself) place no credence whatsoever in climate modelling. I'm happy to change my mind when someone can prove they know all or enough of the inputs to make the model highly accurate. What would be the effect of another 10 hurricanes per year? What about a reversal or diversion of the Gulf stream? How about a permanent el nina in the Pacific? None of these are black swans and yet they would all negate current climactic predictions.