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I've spent some time trying to identify common traits in the Forbes list of billionaires and other similar lists of the world's wealthiest. Best example of sur
by maurits 13y ago
I've spent some time trying to identify common traits in the Forbes list of billionaires and other similar lists of the world's wealthiest.
Best example of survivorship bias I've seen in a long while.
- loceng 13y agoIsn't that the idea though, perhaps their purpose is what allowed them to survive? Hard to wrap my brain around..
- maurits 13y agoWell, it is like this. The larger the initial population, the greater the probability that long streaks of some favourable outcome will appear purely by change. So if I see a single monkey throw a die that consistently lands on 6, I might be inclined to reason that something special is going on with the die, or the monkey his throwing. But if I let a billion monkeys throw a die repeatedly, the probability of having long streaks of consecutive '6-es' from a random monkey, is virtually 1, by randomness alone. Monkey's with streaks you then select out of the initial billion, the rest you discard and then you write about how all hot throwing monkeys like bananas.