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This makes sense economically, but that doesn't address the difficulties we will face as oil becomes too expensive for common, important uses. Our fleet of oil-
by rybosome 13y ago
This makes sense economically, but that doesn't address the difficulties we will face as oil becomes too expensive for common, important uses. Our fleet of oil-consuming vehicles won't magically convert themselves. The oil-backed electrical grid will take a hit. Food will become incredibly expensive (or more scarce) since the vast majority will come from far away, and have been transported via oil.
- gshubert17 13y agoNot just that. Most corn production heavily depends on oil-based inputs, such as fertilizer, fuel for machinery, and natural gas for drying and storage. Corn from the same county will become much more expensive, even without transportation costs.
- fleitz 13y agoFertilizer does not come from oil. This is a myth. Natural gas is not an oil-based input. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fertilizer#Inorganic_commercial_fertilizer http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fertilizer#Inorganic_commercial...
- gshubert17 13y agoRight. Hydrocarbons, then. Natural gas and petroleum have similar geologic and economic characteristics.
- fleitz 13y agoI hate to break it to you but pretty much everything is a hydrocarbon. Natural gas and petroleum are about as similar as the hydrocarbons of corn and cherries.
- gshubert17 13y agoDoes natural gas exploration and exploitation have peak phenomena similar to petroleum? And does coal have its own reserves and peak phenomena? Coal, petroleum, and natural gas are three large categories of energy hydrocarbons. If gas is cheap relative to oil or coal, then at the margin, some users will shift to gas. Prices of energy hydrocarbons will be correlated, over the long term. Then, as coal, oil, and gas are all depleted (with their own separate peaks, perhaps), their prices will increase. Foods like corn which have many dependencies on low-priced energy (farm equipment, fertilizer, drying, and transport), will come under increasing upward price pressure. Corn is used in perhaps a quarter of food SKUs in American grocery stores, so won't a lot of food prices go up as energy prices go up, as a consequence of peak oil (or coal or gas)?
- fleitz 13y agoOil backed electrical grid? Where do you live exactly? No one uses oil to generate any significant amount of electricity, most gas turbines are powered by natural gas, since it's cheap and plentiful. Gas turbines are only used to peak load not base load since coal is even cheaper than natural gas. Most people spend more in fuel getting their groceries home than transporting them to the store. Food miles should be calculated by the distance to the grocery store from your home.
- jarito 13y agoNot entirely true. Hawaii, for example, uses oil as the basis for most of their electric generation. They regret this now and are trying to move to renewables / natgas, but right now, they use oil.
- fleitz 13y agoGood point, I'm not sure if the US has enough money to take on the herculean task of providing non-oil fired generation for 1.5 million people.
- refurb 13y agoOil won't be going up overnight. There will be a time period over which prices rise. As they rise various users of oil will reduce consumption as alternatives suddenly become cheaper. Hell, look at oil consumption in the US! I can't find the stats right now, but oil demand for personal transportation has been flat or dropping despite the increasing number of cars on the road. If a gallon of gas ends up at $10 ten years from now, how much do you think people will complain about having to wait an hour to recharge their electric car? Not much I'm guessing.