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> The risk is asymmetric: starting a crash program toward replacement of finite fossil fuels too early has great up-sides and marginal downsides (opportunity co

> The risk is asymmetric: starting a crash program toward replacement of finite fossil fuels too early has great up-sides and marginal downsides (opportunity cost); but failure to act has enormous downside for marginal upside. - See more at: http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/11/peak-oil-perspective/#sthash.hrEoRVjP.dpuf http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/11/peak-oil-perspec... This is a more intelligent way of stating something I've been saying for years. I always explain my position on peak oil by offering an analogy of a fire escape. If the owner of a building chose not to install a fire escape (assuming they could dodge the law), then a fire in the building would be absolutely disastrous; the law would certainly come down on them for anyone who died, and there would major financial ramifications. On the other hand, if they installed a fire escape but it was never used, then the only downside would have been the initial installation cost. Between these two worst-case scenarios, one is so significantly worse than the other that taking steps to mitigate that risk is the logical thing to do, without regard to the likelihood of worst worst-case happening. Doing nothing with respect to peak oil feels utterly insane.

deleted 13y ago
[deleted]
Casseres 13y ago
The problem is, the United States is tying its own hands by not allowing the development of newer, safer, more efficient nuclear power plants. If we could, we would be able to retire the older, not-as-safe, less-efficient nuclear power plants - and the price of electricity would go down making it more affordable to use electric cars all while using less fossil fuels! I'm all for having a cleaner, safer environment. But until people get over their "not in my backyard" emotions, and get rid of harmful environmental regulations, then we are forced to use the technology that that is more harmful to the environment.
- dismiss21x 13y ago
  What "harmful environmental regulations" are you speaking of?
  - Casseres 13y ago
    Regulations that politicians pass after pressure from environmental groups that disagree with cleaner, safer technologies based on their beliefs. If you ever manage to have a rational discussion with an environmentalist (extremely hard because they almost always turn to name-calling, change the subject, or other childish behaviors), you will discover that the root of their reasoning revolves around a belief rather than logic. (On a side note, I find this humorous because almost all environmentalists I've met are atheists, and atheists claim they don't believe in a god because of logic than a belief. Thus I've concluded, people will almost always rationalize whatever they want to make themselves feel good.) (People generally want the same thing - to be happy, safe, free, etc. Even people with extremely opposing viewpoints. Instead of discovering the real reason, they go with "well they're just a Democrat/Republican/religious/atheist/whatever" - the reason is usually much simpler/basic, it's just that most people don't want to the take the time to work to discover the root difference. Every Republican and Democrat I know both want everyone to be healthy, wealthy, and safe. Every atheist and religious person I know wants peace, goodwill, and to feel good about themselves. Every tree-hugger and gas-guzzler I know wants cleaner air, cleaner water, and not to kill polar bears. They all just disagree on how to get there.) Do you have anything serious to add? If you want me to answer any questions, you have to show that you want a serious discussion. Just posting a cute question alone won't suffice. Doing so is a tactic to distract opponents which is pretty disingenuous.
    - dragonwriter 13y ago
      > If you ever manage to have a rational discussion with an environmentalist (extremely hard because they almost always turn to name-calling, change the subject, or other childish behaviors), you will discover that the root of their reasoning revolves around a belief rather than logic. If you ever have a rational discussion with a human (or, for that matter, anything else that has a belief about what should be done), you'll find that -- its not limited to environmentalists. You can't get to a conclusion about what should be done without starting from an a priori belief about the criteria for what should be done, no matter how much logic gets used between the root belief and the conclusion.
    - 13y ago
joshuahedlund 13y ago
Sure, but that assumes we already know how to build the fire escape, how much it costs, how long it takes, and what it's supposed to look like.
- geden 13y ago
  erm, it's time to at least start finding out!
  - joshuahedlund 13y ago
    Fortunately, we've been working on it for decades. The issue is not so much about whether or not to "do nothing" as it is about whether or not to devote how many more (and whose) marginal dollars toward it, and how.
- BerislavLopac 13y ago
  We do. It's called "nuclear power".
consultant23522 13y ago
I feel the exact same way about global warming.
- nitroscott 13y ago
  And zombies.
fleitz 13y ago
Agreed, which is why we should all believe in God, since although the possibility that he exists is slim to none, the risk of him actually existing is quite great to non-believers. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal's_Wager http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal's_Wager
- dasil003 13y ago
  Of course that's a bad analogy because we can define God any way we want; we could easily define him to be angry at people who do believe. Whereas a fire escape or even peak oil is at least somewhat quantifiable risk.
  - fleitz 13y ago
    Which is why the problem is being solved by a mix of pricing and development of alternatives by the free market. The problem is some people don't think what the market is doing is enough and demand intervention from government based on a line of reasoning similar to Pascal's Wager. Apparently, oil companies developing resources, and Tesla and others developing alternatives is 'doing nothing'.
    - rybosome 13y ago
      You are correct that some private firms are beginning to hedge their bets (or in Tesla's case, directly offer a competing product), but I was referring to government...as you guessed. We've seen numerous examples of abuse of the free market - I don't think that a few companies pushing us past the point of comfort with respect to oil production is a far-fetched scenario. Personally speaking, I would like some level of government intervention. The identification of my argument as being analogous to Pascal's Wager is interesting (that was a great read, thank you for linking), but is not compelling enough to dissuade me. If I'm reading the tone of your posts correctly, you do not agree that peak oil is something to be concerned about; what is your counter-argument?
- continuations 13y ago
  But which god though? Pick the wrong one and you're still classified as a non-believer.
lukifer 13y ago
The same logic applies to asteroid strikes, climate change and potential ecology collapses as well. Whatever the odds are, they are decidedly non-astronomic, and therefore should be taken seriously.
- r00fus 13y ago
  And the US had budget for things like asteroid strikes (at least until the sequester). But it can only be taken seriously if the actors with sufficient power actually care about said future and not, for example, present profits to the exclusion of all else.

deleted 13y ago

[deleted]

Casseres 13y ago

The problem is, the United States is tying its own hands by not allowing the development of newer, safer, more efficient nuclear power plants. If we could, we would be able to retire the older, not-as-safe, less-efficient nuclear power plants - and the price of electricity would go down making it more affordable to use electric cars all while using less fossil fuels! I'm all for having a cleaner, safer environment. But until people get over their "not in my backyard" emotions, and get rid of harmful environmental regulations, then we are forced to use the technology that that is more harmful to the environment.

dismiss21x 13y ago
What "harmful environmental regulations" are you speaking of?
- Casseres 13y ago
  Regulations that politicians pass after pressure from environmental groups that disagree with cleaner, safer technologies based on their beliefs. If you ever manage to have a rational discussion with an environmentalist (extremely hard because they almost always turn to name-calling, change the subject, or other childish behaviors), you will discover that the root of their reasoning revolves around a belief rather than logic. (On a side note, I find this humorous because almost all environmentalists I've met are atheists, and atheists claim they don't believe in a god because of logic than a belief. Thus I've concluded, people will almost always rationalize whatever they want to make themselves feel good.) (People generally want the same thing - to be happy, safe, free, etc. Even people with extremely opposing viewpoints. Instead of discovering the real reason, they go with "well they're just a Democrat/Republican/religious/atheist/whatever" - the reason is usually much simpler/basic, it's just that most people don't want to the take the time to work to discover the root difference. Every Republican and Democrat I know both want everyone to be healthy, wealthy, and safe. Every atheist and religious person I know wants peace, goodwill, and to feel good about themselves. Every tree-hugger and gas-guzzler I know wants cleaner air, cleaner water, and not to kill polar bears. They all just disagree on how to get there.) Do you have anything serious to add? If you want me to answer any questions, you have to show that you want a serious discussion. Just posting a cute question alone won't suffice. Doing so is a tactic to distract opponents which is pretty disingenuous.
  - dragonwriter 13y ago
    > If you ever manage to have a rational discussion with an environmentalist (extremely hard because they almost always turn to name-calling, change the subject, or other childish behaviors), you will discover that the root of their reasoning revolves around a belief rather than logic. If you ever have a rational discussion with a human (or, for that matter, anything else that has a belief about what should be done), you'll find that -- its not limited to environmentalists. You can't get to a conclusion about what should be done without starting from an a priori belief about the criteria for what should be done, no matter how much logic gets used between the root belief and the conclusion.
  - 13y ago

joshuahedlund 13y ago

Sure, but that assumes we already know how to build the fire escape, how much it costs, how long it takes, and what it's supposed to look like.

geden 13y ago
erm, it's time to at least start finding out!
- joshuahedlund 13y ago
  Fortunately, we've been working on it for decades. The issue is not so much about whether or not to "do nothing" as it is about whether or not to devote how many more (and whose) marginal dollars toward it, and how.
BerislavLopac 13y ago
We do. It's called "nuclear power".

consultant23522 13y ago

I feel the exact same way about global warming.

nitroscott 13y ago
And zombies.

fleitz 13y ago

Agreed, which is why we should all believe in God, since although the possibility that he exists is slim to none, the risk of him actually existing is quite great to non-believers. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal's_Wager http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal's_Wager

dasil003 13y ago
Of course that's a bad analogy because we can define God any way we want; we could easily define him to be angry at people who do believe. Whereas a fire escape or even peak oil is at least somewhat quantifiable risk.
- fleitz 13y ago
  Which is why the problem is being solved by a mix of pricing and development of alternatives by the free market. The problem is some people don't think what the market is doing is enough and demand intervention from government based on a line of reasoning similar to Pascal's Wager. Apparently, oil companies developing resources, and Tesla and others developing alternatives is 'doing nothing'.
  - rybosome 13y ago
    You are correct that some private firms are beginning to hedge their bets (or in Tesla's case, directly offer a competing product), but I was referring to government...as you guessed. We've seen numerous examples of abuse of the free market - I don't think that a few companies pushing us past the point of comfort with respect to oil production is a far-fetched scenario. Personally speaking, I would like some level of government intervention. The identification of my argument as being analogous to Pascal's Wager is interesting (that was a great read, thank you for linking), but is not compelling enough to dissuade me. If I'm reading the tone of your posts correctly, you do not agree that peak oil is something to be concerned about; what is your counter-argument?
continuations 13y ago
But which god though? Pick the wrong one and you're still classified as a non-believer.

lukifer 13y ago

The same logic applies to asteroid strikes, climate change and potential ecology collapses as well. Whatever the odds are, they are decidedly non-astronomic, and therefore should be taken seriously.

r00fus 13y ago
And the US had budget for things like asteroid strikes (at least until the sequester). But it can only be taken seriously if the actors with sufficient power actually care about said future and not, for example, present profits to the exclusion of all else.