First off, 2011 was most definitely not "pre-fracking". The majors moved into unconventionals in a big way starting around 2006-2007, and the independents were

First off, 2011 was most definitely not "pre-fracking". The majors moved into unconventionals in a big way starting around 2006-2007, and the independents were doing it well before that. However, unconventional gas resources don't particularly play into this calculation. Gas (as in methane) is a completely different resource in this context. The markets are different and the reserves are very different (there's a lot more methane). The "peak oil" debate focuses on liquid hydrocarbons. There are several liquids-rich unconventional "fracking" plays (e.g. the Bakken in North Dakota), but they're not particularly common. Oil shale is a much bigger player in terms of volume, but again, you're looking at slow, expensive, environmentally costly production. It's certainly more of a long-term problem, but it is something to be worried about. It's hard to replace liquid fossil fuels in terms of energy-density per unit volume. It's a problem that we as a society need to be working a _lot_ more on.