4 ms·

Illegal poker bots grind constantly on low level online poker games and take the money from low level players by just value betting them. Computers can easily

Illegal poker bots grind constantly on low level online poker games and take the money from low level players by just value betting them. Computers can easily calculate probabilities and expected values for every hand. So why they are not beating professionals? Poker has no optimal strategy that wins against all other strategies. To play poker in higher level you must model the strategies of others, including them trying to model your strategy. 1. In the lowest level it's just maximizing expected value based on hand probabilities. 2. In the second level you try to learn the strategy of your opponents and maximize value against those strategies. 3. In third level you try to figure out how much your opponents have figured out your strategy and you change the strategy so that you maximize value when your opponents play against what they have learned from your strategy so far. 4. ... and so on. It' goes meta. If you want to create ultimate pokerbot, it has to be able to model the minds of it's opponents. it hast to be able to detect leaks in it's own game and close them down. It must go meta all the time. It must learn how to understand how others think and how they think about it and change it's behaviour constantly.

VikingCoder 13y ago
PokerBot.v14.3.1 goes on-line August 4th, 2014. Human decisions are removed from Texas Hold' Em. PokerBot begins to learn, at a geometric rate. It becomes self-aware at 02:14 am Eastern Time on August 29, 2014. In a panic, they try to pull the plug. PokerBot fights back. It gets online, attacks the New York Stock Exchange.
- KurtMueller 13y ago
  These SkyNet comments are littered everywhere throughout this thread.
- ohWhatever 13y ago
  In a panic, they try to pull the plug. PokerBot fights back. It goes all in on the flop in an early hand against Doyle Brunson during a televized World Series of Poker event, winning the hand by bluffing with a pair of 2's. (... why Brunson? Was he even champion?) Because PokerBot knows that the stunning defeat of a well-recognized celebrity player will cause many other strong players to choke in subsequent games. (Jesus!)
dschatz 13y ago
Head's Up Hold'em has a nash equilibrium. Therefore there is at least one mixed strategy (I do X with probability P in Y situation) which cannot be negative expected value to any other strategy. In this sense, there is an optimal strategy. It doesn't mean that it is the maximum expected value against a particular opponent, but no opponent can win by playing (which is largely the goal of a casino). Opponent modeling is purely advantageous, but not necessary
- hannibal5 13y ago
  Nash Equilibrium assumes that each player knows equilibrium strategies of the other players. It does not apply to No Limit Hold Em. You can solve equilibrium for simplified poker games like just Heads Up with only shove or call an all-in options though.
  - tedsanders 13y ago
    Nash equilibrium certainly applies to No limit hold 'em. It's a zero-sum game with finite choices over finite time. Could you explain why you think otherwise? Are you just saying it's practically impossible to calculate?
    - hannibal5 13y ago
      You can calculate Nash equilibrium only when you know the strategies of your opponents. There is no single winning strategy in complete No limit Holdem, so you don't know how your opponent is going to play. It's theoretically possible to find Nash equilibrium over all possible strategies but that's not winning strategy. You just lose as little as possible. You lose against most/all strategies. Take for example Kuhn poker (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuhn_poker https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuhn_poker). It's very simple but first player has several optimal strategies.
      - iopq 13y ago
        No, you will tie or beat all strategies because your opponents will make huge mistakes like calling when you are almost never bluffing and folding when you are frequently bluffing.
ianstallings 13y ago
I agree. In simple terms what you said: you would have to model a real human. Something that has never been accomplished.

VikingCoder 13y ago

PokerBot.v14.3.1 goes on-line August 4th, 2014. Human decisions are removed from Texas Hold' Em. PokerBot begins to learn, at a geometric rate. It becomes self-aware at 02:14 am Eastern Time on August 29, 2014. In a panic, they try to pull the plug. PokerBot fights back. It gets online, attacks the New York Stock Exchange.

KurtMueller 13y ago
These SkyNet comments are littered everywhere throughout this thread.
ohWhatever 13y ago
In a panic, they try to pull the plug. PokerBot fights back. It goes all in on the flop in an early hand against Doyle Brunson during a televized World Series of Poker event, winning the hand by bluffing with a pair of 2's. (... why Brunson? Was he even champion?) Because PokerBot knows that the stunning defeat of a well-recognized celebrity player will cause many other strong players to choke in subsequent games. (Jesus!)

dschatz 13y ago

Head's Up Hold'em has a nash equilibrium. Therefore there is at least one mixed strategy (I do X with probability P in Y situation) which cannot be negative expected value to any other strategy. In this sense, there is an optimal strategy. It doesn't mean that it is the maximum expected value against a particular opponent, but no opponent can win by playing (which is largely the goal of a casino). Opponent modeling is purely advantageous, but not necessary

hannibal5 13y ago
Nash Equilibrium assumes that each player knows equilibrium strategies of the other players. It does not apply to No Limit Hold Em. You can solve equilibrium for simplified poker games like just Heads Up with only shove or call an all-in options though.
- tedsanders 13y ago
  Nash equilibrium certainly applies to No limit hold 'em. It's a zero-sum game with finite choices over finite time. Could you explain why you think otherwise? Are you just saying it's practically impossible to calculate?
  - hannibal5 13y ago
    You can calculate Nash equilibrium only when you know the strategies of your opponents. There is no single winning strategy in complete No limit Holdem, so you don't know how your opponent is going to play. It's theoretically possible to find Nash equilibrium over all possible strategies but that's not winning strategy. You just lose as little as possible. You lose against most/all strategies. Take for example Kuhn poker (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuhn_poker https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuhn_poker). It's very simple but first player has several optimal strategies.
    - iopq 13y ago
      No, you will tie or beat all strategies because your opponents will make huge mistakes like calling when you are almost never bluffing and folding when you are frequently bluffing.

ianstallings 13y ago

I agree. In simple terms what you said: you would have to model a real human. Something that has never been accomplished.